Bilko wrote:
I would be interested to know what % of anti-Castro Cuban-Floridian-Americans voted for Obama. If the pct. is small enough, he may risk offending them and lift some parts of the Embargo.
I seriously doubt there are many if any PRO-Castro Cuban Americans in Florida or anywhere else. The real dividing line is not whether they like Castro or not but what they think we should do about him and that dividing line is largely generational as Jazzbo suggested. Where I disagree with Jazzbo is that I think this shift is already starting to reveal itself. Sure you still have politicians like Lincoln Diaz-Ballart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and fossils like Jorge Mas Canosa of the CANF, but their political base is dying off and/or becoming acculturated and you also have pragmatic politicians like Raul Martinez, long-time Democratic mayor of Hialeah.
Think about it. You have Cubans in Tampa who have mostly been here since the turn of the last century (circa the Spanish-American War, Teddy Roosevelt, San Juan Hill) when they came over to work in our cigar factories. Of course, they care about their homeland but not like one who was born there. Then you have the Cubans who live mainly in S. Florida who came over after the Cuban Revolution of 1959. They were the monied class, who lost almost everything when they fled the island (think Bacardi, Cohiba, etc.)and I suspect they're motivated almost as much by the dream of getting back what was nationalized as anything political (more on that in a moment). The problem is that those who were old enough to really remember Cuba are now 60 or even older and are greatly outnumbered by their Ch*ldren and grandchildren who were born here. Those 2nd and 3rd generations Cubans are heavily acculturated. Although they still may share a lot of the attitudes that they were raised with they are far less passionate about it. A lot of them recognize the existing Cuban policy for what it is, an utter failure that hurts their cousins back in Cuba far more than it hurts the Cuban government. Next you have Cubans from subsequent waves of immigration including the Marielitos of 1980 (think Scarface). They never had the pre-revolution wealth and know firsthand the trials and tribulations of their Cuban brothers and sisters back home. Many of them are as rabidly anti-Castro as any of the older generation, but a most of them are much more concerned about a) making a new life in America (and sending money back home) and b) bringing relief to the brothers and sisters they left behind whatever it takes. They better than anyone understand the effects of the Cuban Embargo. Finally, you have a HUGE and growing population of Latinos in Florida who aren't even from Cuba but come from other places like Colombia, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Mexico. Their attitude towards Cuba are probably not much different than any of ours except they are probably even more likely to feel that Cuba gets too much of our attention relative to their own countries (and that Cuban exiles can unfairly more favorable treatment by US immigration).
If you look at the exit polls for how Latinos voted in Florida you will see how this bears out. Overall, Latinos went for Obama by 57% to 42%. For white voters it was the exact opposite. Latinos 18-29 years old went for Obama by 76%, 45-64 year olds went Obama by 62%. Interestingly, it was the 30-44 year olds that were split 50-50 but all those age groups greatly exceeded the corresponding percentages for whites.