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 Post subject: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:36 pm 
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Very interesting.... :? :? :?

Colones/Dollar exchange rate continues to move south, albeit slowly, but much quicker than expected, especially after long period of sustained averaging that was not natural or long term sustainable, anyway.

Us economy booming and expanding, dollar expanding and they owe a fortune in debt and can't just print money like USA, they can't continue to keep their money artificially pegged to the U.S. dollar, plus they're experiencing a surge of Nicaraguans that need services, etc.

The ruling elites, paperwork shuffling old mustachio Pete government bureaucrats all the way down to the working union men have been shoveling massive amounts into their coffers for a long time and it's taking its toll and without question, unsustainable.

They can't tax their way out of this, perhaps temporarily, but then that will lower overall investment and income and the end will come quickly and more brutally if they attempt a continuous series of tax increases and don't address their gross mismanagement of the economy...

Not seeing any movement toward balance and sustained new level yet, even after clumsy bailout attempt, no uptic from that effort sustained, could be the beginning of a surprise rapid value decline that catches everyone off guard...

For you moneyed mongers out there, if you got some big dollars in colones right now, get the hell out, get back as much as you can in dollars, if it somehow levels off, you can always come back in... 8)

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/c ... 0907172000

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:31 pm 
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How much is too much? Maybe I'll sell some off; exchange.


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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:40 pm 
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Netgems wrote:
Very interesting.... :? :? :?

Colones/Dollar exchange rate continues to move south, albeit slowly, but much quicker than expected, especially after long period of sustained averaging that was not natural or long term sustainable, anyway.

Us economy booming and expanding, dollar expanding and they owe a fortune in debt and can't just print money like USA, they can't continue to keep their money artificially pegged to the U.S. dollar, plus they're experiencing a surge of Nicaraguans that need services, etc.

The ruling elites, paperwork shuffling old mustachio Pete government bureaucrats all the way down to the working union men have been shoveling massive amounts into their coffers for a long time and it's taking its toll and without question, unsustainable.

They can't tax their way out of this, perhaps temporarily, but then that will lower overall investment and income and the end will come quickly and more brutally if they attempt a continuous series of tax increases and don't address their gross mismanagement of the economy...

Not seeing any movement toward balance and sustained new level yet, even after clumsy bailout attempt, no uptic from that effort sustained, could be the beginning of a surprise rapid value decline that catches everyone off guard...

For you moneyed mongers out there, if you got some big dollars in colones right now, get the hell out, get back as much as you can in dollars, if it somehow levels off, you can always come back in... 8)

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/c ... 0907172000


Life in Costa Rica right now is more difficult than ever for people who have to work for a living. Life is good for rich gringos and Ticos and that's it. Everyone else there has to struggle. Yeah, our middle class is not as prosperous as I'd like it to be (although if the economy keeps booming, that could change), but as long as you don't live in places such as New York City and San Francisco, one can still live well on a modest salary.


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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:31 pm 
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Wouldn't get too excited, over the past 10 years it's fluctuated about 100 Colones up or down,
currently that's 17 cents. :shock: :shock: :shock:
Now inflation and price of consumer goods is a different ballgame.
Regards, 911 Driver

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:26 am 
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911 Driver wrote:
Wouldn't get too excited, over the past 10 years it's fluctuated about 100 Colones up or down,
currently that's 17 cents. :shock: :shock: :shock:
Now inflation and price of consumer goods is a different ballgame.
Regards, 911 Driver



If it slams through .585, where it is currently, as per this report, highest in last 90 days, we may be off to the races, next week will tell, if it stabilizes, another mere high fluctuation, if it inches towards .600...off to the races!!!

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/co ... USD&To=CRC

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:11 am 
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Netgems wrote:
911 Driver wrote:
Wouldn't get too excited, over the past 10 years it's fluctuated about 100 Colones up or down,
currently that's 17 cents. :shock: :shock: :shock:
Now inflation and price of consumer goods is a different ballgame.
Regards, 911 Driver



If it slams through .585, where it is currently, as per this report, highest in last 90 days, we may be off to the races, next week will tell, if it stabilizes, another mere high fluctuation, if it inches towards .600...off to the races!!!

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/co ... USD&To=CRC

As I have said many times before, the site you posted may be fine for reference or if you are in the States and for some reason wanting to obtain colones there, BUT DO NOT expect to get their rate ANYWHERE in Costa Rica. Under a law passed, I think, around 2007 or 08 the exchange rate is automatically bolstered and kept at a lower rate by the infusion of dollars from the National bank's reserves every time it changes more than a couple of points. This past week, for some reason, they have not done this and in 8 days it has gone from 565 to 579. Actually the rate as of bank closing Friday afternoon ranged from 579 down to 575 depending which bank you looked at.

The rising rate is great for us who have dollars (in the short term), but is terrible for the locals who only have colones. In the long run it is bad for us who live here and have dollars to exchange because if it stays high very shortly prices of everything will go up. And in the past every time this has occurred the price increases have amounted to more than increased exchange rate. Also every time the country puts dollars into the system it causes more inflation, so we expats living here loose either way!! As do the Ticos. It costs the country millions of dollars every time they put dollars into the system (last time it was 12 million$$$$). I guess you could say it is the "ULTIMATE TICO THING"!!

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:19 am 
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I heard that they wanted to raise impuestos from 13% to 15%. Apparently, they can’t afford subsidies like school meals, etc. Probably due to the poor colones performance. Apparently, there’s a scheduled strike starting tomorrow. More to come, I guess.


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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:27 am 
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Yes but as they say about socialism, sooner or later you run out of other people's money, this little country is heavy in debt and they can't continue that method much longer, they can't just print more money like the USA and get away with it. :?

They are not immune to a crash like we experienced in '07 and '08, there's only so many pineapples, coffee, eco-tours and pu*sy they can sell... :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

I find rent still relatively cheap compared to USA but food prices are shocking for a 3rd world country. Well, if the sh*t hits the fan, beans n rice, peanut butter and eggs supply the necessary protein, and pineapples are still cheap... :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:34 am 
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Stuff wrote:
I heard that they wanted to raise impuestos from 13% to 15%. Apparently, they can’t afford subsidies like school meals, etc. Probably due to the poor colones performance. Apparently, there’s a scheduled strike starting tomorrow. More to come, I guess.


I talked to several Ticos and Ticas I know who are middle and upper class, they worked their asses off to get there, many 6 days a week, 50 plus hours a week.

They are sick and tired of well paid with excellent upcoming pensions union lackeys and government bureaucrat do nothing for the people mooches striking, demanding, corrupting, throwing temper tantrums and getting enriched more and more at their expense. :x

At some point if the economy continues a downward spiral and these privileged pollyannas keep up their tricks, some of the ordinary working people may get fed up and start throwing punches.... :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:41 am 
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Ticos get screwed at the super market. No wonder ferias are so popular. I can understand higher prices at a tourist rich environment but it’s everywhere. A liter of Dos Pinos milk is nearly half the price in Panama than Costa Rica. It’s a shame.


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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:05 pm 
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Stuff wrote:
I heard that they wanted to raise impuestos from 13% to 15%. Apparently, they can’t afford subsidies like school meals, etc. Probably due to the poor colones performance. Apparently, there’s a scheduled strike starting tomorrow. More to come, I guess.

The strike scheduled to start tomorrow is primarily because of the several proposed tax increases designed to keep the country from going bankrupt. As I understand it most of the proposals are to eliminate the loopholes and ease of just not paying the taxes already on the books.

If it (the strike) is as big as they are saying, it could very well bring the country to a total stand still. I am very glad I now live out in the middle of nowhere and have sufficient supplies and necessities to last for a while. My biggest concern is power and water since the unions at both public services are to be a part of the strike. Both are assuring that it will not affect either service, BUT!!!! Even all public medical services could be heavily affected!!

In my opinion there are several reasons the country is in financial trouble: Bolstering the colon over the last few years has cost the country millions, weak laws concerning payment of taxes, and a weak economy. The lack of manufacturing within the country and thus a lack of exports and heavy volume of imports is a big problem. And the already high cost of living here combined with the relative low average income makes for a very difficult life for many. It is a vicious cycle!!!! And last but not least, out and out stealing by officials, extremely high salaries for the top public and private officials (totally out of line with normal incomes) and crazy high pensions for those same officials.

AND as Netgems mentioned, too many high costing social services with insufficient tax income to support them. For example, and no I do not want to pay more, but at 76 I pay a little less than $100 a month for full, complete medical coverage with no deductible nor copay!! And a Tico family of 4-5 people pays even less (about $50 a month). Medicine, for the most part is a lot cheaper here than in the States and doctor charges are much lower, BUT, not that much lower!! Expats pay double or more mainly because of the large number of expats living here with NO insurance and then not paying the bill when they get sick!! I have known of several cases where the bill has been in the thousands of dollars and the expat then skips the country without paying. The hospitals are required to provide the service!!!

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:25 pm 
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Will this affect travel ?


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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:14 am 
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SwooshLV69 wrote:
Will this affect travel ?



Yes. moderately.

Here is the lifetime recorded dollar colones exchange rate, the natural trend trajectory is upwards, (click on "all" bottom middle of chart, ignore current short term chart, irrelevant.

The artificial intervention by CR banks and their version of the fed has stifled it artificially, but they can't hold on forever, right now it's teetering, I may be going out on a limb here, I'm thinking 600 by December and not unreasonable to hypothesize sooner.

https://tradingeconomics.com/costa-rica/currency

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:27 am 
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81% volatility, crazy, highly unusual, usually indicative of a possible rapid expansion, a potential break out.

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/co ... USD&To=CRC

I disagree :

Costa Rican Colon - Forecast
The Costa Rican Colon is expected to trade at 569.59 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 574.36 in 12 months time.

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/c ... forecast=2

It could stabilize like they are saying but that doesn't account for volatility. Remember, very few "experts" saw the 2007-2008 worldwide recession coming, either. The next couple weeks to 30 days should tell the tale, if it breaks through 585, hold on... :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: DOLLARS/COLONES
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:11 am 
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Netgems wrote:
81% volatility, crazy, highly unusual, usually indicative of a possible rapid expansion, a potential break out.

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/co ... USD&To=CRC

I disagree :

Costa Rican Colon - Forecast
The Costa Rican Colon is expected to trade at 569.59 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 574.36 in 12 months time.

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/c ... forecast=2

It could stabilize like they are saying but that doesn't account for volatility. Remember, very few "experts" saw the 2007-2008 worldwide recession coming, either. The next couple weeks to 30 days should tell the tale, if it breaks through 585, hold on... :shock:


As I have stated many times before, all this does not mean crap if you want to exchange dollars for colones IN COSTA RICA!!! PERIOD!! It has been years (about 10) since you have been able to get what xe.com or any other source outside the country says the rate is! The official rate in the country last Friday had risen rapidly from 565 a week earlier to 579. Monday the rate IN COUNTRY began to drop. As of this afternoon it was 572.

I do agree that the National bank CANNOT keep putting millions of dollars into the system to lower the rate every time the "international" rate goes up and forces the financial institutions in Costa Rica to raise the rate. The country is already just about broke!!

IF you can find a bank outside the country who has colones and will exchange them for dollars at what is the "stated rate" according to xe.com and others say, change your money before coming here. But good luck in your search; no one outside of CR wants to hold on to colones any longer than they have to!

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