www.CostaRicaTicas.com

Welcome to the #1 Source for Information on Costa Rica
It is currently Wed Aug 06, 2025 6:49 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 76 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:52 am 
PHD From Del Rey University!

Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:05 am
Posts: 1059
Location: Seattle, WA
Keeping the price of everything imported, and that is anything other than tourism, coffee, bananas...and chicas :shock: affordadable to the locals and their pathetically low salaries (just look at the massive strikes recently and the overall hidden level of poverty).

They do this in Venezuela real well too...Argentina is also into it. And many other countries. Guess CR wants to follow those disastrous examples. Maybe :roll:


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:45 pm 
Ticas ask me for advice!
User avatar

Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2003 3:35 am
Posts: 374
Location: La Sabana, and SoFla
in reply to col ingus;

propping up the currency helps to hide the fact that the country should be experiencing price drops, it is a short term ploy, where the banks buy bonds among themselves and keep the cost of living high.

costa rica experienced Intel moving to Asia ( which was providing numerous jobs, and a strong ( by some estimates 20% of all ) export business), there are also large foreign investments coming in, espcially in guanacaste and the higher prices make it more expensive to invest, and more dollars flow into the coffers.
propping up the currency does cause the locals to bleed, compete for fewer jobs and will, for the short term, make alot of the wealthy wealthier.
After the pigs have eaten, I expect the colon to drop.

_________________
Having too much fun. 8)


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:50 pm 
PHD From Del Rey University!
User avatar

Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 8:07 am
Posts: 3337
Location: South Florida
Rico1040 wrote:
in reply to col ingus;

propping up the currency helps to hide the fact that the country should be experiencing price drops, it is a short term ploy, where the banks buy bonds among themselves and keep the cost of living high.

costa rica experienced Intel moving to Asia ( which was providing numerous jobs, and a strong ( by some estimates 20% of all ) export business), there are also large foreign investments coming in, espcially in guanacaste and the higher prices make it more expensive to invest, and more dollars flow into the coffers.
propping up the currency does cause the locals to bleed, compete for fewer jobs and will, for the short term, make alot of the wealthy wealthier.
After the pigs have eaten, I expect the colon to drop.

And once again ... WHAT ARE YOU GUYS BASING THIS ON? Gut reaction? Years of Economics education? Wishful thinking?

I do not find any mainstream articles or papers to support this position. There are surely many reasons to prop up a nation's currency, but that is far short of being able to show proof that it is being exercised.

Educate me guys. Show me something here ....

_________________
bypassin' kinky, and usin' the whole chicken!!!


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:28 pm 
Masters Degree in Mongering!
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 31, 2004 9:30 pm
Posts: 665
Location: San Jose
An IMF representative met with the President of the Costa Rican Central Bank and the Ministro de Hacienda (Secretary of the Treasury) yesterday. I'll leave it to you economists to offer opinions on propping up the colon, but they were not terribly sanguine about CR's fiscal situation.

http://www.nacion.com/economia/politica-economica/FMI-advierte-riesgo-ajuste-abrupto_0_1520048010.html

The link might not work, so here's the text:

Quote:
El alto déficit fiscal que arrastra Costa Rica puede provocar que los mercados de crédito internacionales le cierren las puertas y obliguen a un ajuste financiero desordenado, que afectaría a los sectores más débiles.

Así lo advirtió Lorenzo Figliuoli, jefe de misión del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) que visitó el país esta semana.

Él brindó, este viernes, una conferencia de prensa junto con Mario Garza, representante regional del FMI; Olivier Castro, presidente del Banco Central de Costa Rica, y Helio Fallas, ministro de Hacienda, entre otros.

Figliuoli explicó que cuando el déficit es tan grande y la deuda pública respecto a la producción crece tan rápido y excede niveles del 40% o 50% de la producción, aumentan los riesgos para la economía.

Para este año, el déficit del Gobierno Central (exceso de gastos sobre los ingresos que provienen, principalmente, de impuestos) alcanzará un 5,9% de la producción. Por su parte, el monto de la deuda del Gobierno respecto a la producción alcanzó en julio pasado, un 41,5%, y la de todo el sector público, 60,4%.

“¿Cuál es el peligro de no hacer el ajuste fiscal?

Para el delegado, es que los mercados se cierren y obliguen a hacer un ajuste de manera desordenada, demasiado abrupto y con urgencia.

“En esas condiciones, el ajuste fiscal no se hace bien diseñado, no se hace con gradualidad y tiene un impacto negativo sobre la economía y, sobre todo, en los sectores más débiles de la sociedad, los que menos se pueden defender cuando las cosas van mal”, advirtió.

Según Figliuoli, este riesgo sube con la posible alza de los intereses en Estados Unidos.

Hace un año, el emisario del FMI dijo que se requiere un ajuste equivalente al 3,75% de la producción, el cual debería hacerse, con 2,50% a través de aumentar la recaudación de impuestos y otro, 1,25% con medidas para bajar el gasto. Esta vez repitió la receta.

El exministro de Hacienda, Francisco de Paula Gutiérrez, consideró válidas las preocupaciones del jerarca del Fondo.

“Nos sentimos relativamente tranquilos con un déficit que rondará este año el 6% del PIB, en buena parte porque no estamos (todavía) viendo sus consecuencias plenas en la tasa de interés, aunque ya las sentimos en la apreciación cambiaria y en el crecimiento”, comentó Gutiérrez.

“Creo que no le estamos entrando al problema con la fuerza que se debe. Más que buscar financiamiento en China, para patear la bola un poco más, deberíamos estar negociando entre los diferentes grupos políticos para atacar los disparadores del gasto público y para viabilizar los nuevos tributos”, añadió.

La exviceministra de Hacienda, Edna Camacho, explicó que cuando un país alcanza un nivel de deuda que se considera insostenible, los inversionistas pueden perder confianza en la capacidad de pago del Gobierno.

“Desafortunadamente, esta desconfianza está relacionada con la confianza en el colón y por eso existe el riesgo de un ajuste desordenado en el mercado cambiario”, señaló.

_________________
It's faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money--Tom T. Hall
No man is a failure who is enjoying life--William Faulkner


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:49 pm 
Ticas ask me for advice!
User avatar

Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 4:48 pm
Posts: 455
http://insidecostarica.com/2015/10/22/b ... s-plummet/

today


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:25 pm 
Masters Degree in Mongering!
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:14 am
Posts: 516
.

_________________
its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled- mark twain


Last edited by Col Ingus on Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:30 pm 
Masters Degree in Mongering!
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:14 am
Posts: 516
bandon843 wrote:
Keeping the price of everything imported, and that is anything other than tourism, coffee, bananas...and chicas :shock: affordadable to the locals and their pathetically low salaries (just look at the massive strikes recently and the overall hidden level of poverty).

They do this in Venezuela real well too...Argentina is also into it. And many other countries. Guess CR wants to follow those disastrous examples. Maybe :roll:


Venezuela... oil exporter into an oil glut... The bolivar is "officially" pegged to the dollar... yet there is a realistic valuation in the black market where its 620 to 1$ vs the 6 to 1$ official rate ... the only currency black market going on Costa rica is chicas quoting in dollars and getting 520/1$ vs 535/1$ official at the del rey....

argentina, their fiasco serves as the biggest reason not to prop up currency... its great to learn from your mistakes, its better to learn from someone elses... also a thriving black market done there too "cambio cambio" is all you hear as a gringo down there


tourism and chicas are exports...
propping up the colones lowers inflows of dollars to purchase imports

_________________
its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled- mark twain


Last edited by Col Ingus on Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:32 pm 
Masters Degree in Mongering!
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:14 am
Posts: 516
Rico1040 wrote:
in reply to col ingus;

propping up the currency helps to hide the fact that the country should be experiencing price drops, it is a short term ploy, where the banks buy bonds among themselves and keep the cost of living high.

costa rica experienced Intel moving to Asia ( which was providing numerous jobs, and a strong ( by some estimates 20% of all ) export business), there are also large foreign investments coming in, espcially in guanacaste and the higher prices make it more expensive to invest, and more dollars flow into the coffers.
propping up the currency does cause the locals to bleed, compete for fewer jobs and will, for the short term, make alot of the wealthy wealthier.
After the pigs have eaten, I expect the colon to drop.



propping up the currency does the exact opposite of what you just tried to explain... why would i bring my dollars to Costa rica to invest if the currency is being propped up and other international investments in the world stage offer more return in a strong dollar enviroment?

if anything they would want to devalue inorder to compete for US dollar inflows

now i do agree that the Colones will drop in value due to government deficits, but an artifical propping up of currency makes zero sense in their situation

_________________
its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled- mark twain


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:34 pm 
PHD From Del Rey University!

Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:05 am
Posts: 1059
Location: Seattle, WA
Col Ingus wrote:
bandon843 wrote:
Keeping the price of everything imported, and that is anything other than tourism, coffee, bananas...and chicas :shock: affordadable to the locals and their pathetically low salaries (just look at the massive strikes recently and the overall hidden level of poverty).

They do this in Venezuela real well too...Argentina is also into it. And many other countries. Guess CR wants to follow those disastrous examples. Maybe :roll:


...propping up the colones lowers inflows of dollars to purchase imports

And that is exactly what will happen CI, once the manipulation game runs its course, it always does!


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:57 am 
Masters Degree in Mongering!
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:14 am
Posts: 516
bandon843 wrote:
And that is exactly what will happen CI, once the manipulation game runs its course, it always does!


and once again... what is the benefit and motivation of this "manipulation" ?

Before they went full float, interventions by the BCCR in early to mid 2014 came ahead of the huge drop in commodity prices which, maybe by lucky timing, allowed us dollar reserves to build thru cost savings on petro imports. Also contributing to reserve increases are investors keeping USD and Euro (where as you know short bond rates are near zero) investments in place. In fact due to large drops in value of oil exporters such as Colombia and brazil have cause dollar flight... those investors who wish to maintain exposure in latin america will be putting that money into relatively stable economies like costa rica and panama.

will this last forever? probably not... but your conspiracy theory of propping up the colones doesnt even have a backing motivation... at least go tin foil hat and say the illuminatti is controlling the BCCR... :mrgreen:

honestly, I would like to hear a valid point other than your gut

_________________
its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled- mark twain


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:02 am 
PHD From Del Rey University!

Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:05 am
Posts: 1059
Location: Seattle, WA
The objective and purpose of the manipulation is to keep prices of all imports (almost everything in CR) as low as possible for as long as possible for the local salaried ranks (the large majority of Ticos). BTW, the politicians have lucked out with the low price of oil, for now. If it wasn't for this huge break, the colon would have blown up quite a while ago.

Look at the social pressures (strikes/protests, higher criminal activity) that have been building in the local society the last few years…prices, in colones, for everything are up, salaries are not keeping up, the government is running an expanding deficit…while the politicians attempt to maintain prices stable against these pressures. It is not sustainable long term!

Yet the price, or exchange rate, of the US dollar remain "pegged".

The colon will suffer a steep devaluation (30%+) soon, sooner if interest rates start going up in the US later this year or in early 2016.

Just watch it...


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:05 am 
PHD From Del Rey University!
User avatar

Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 10:20 pm
Posts: 12644
Wow... it's like I'm back in my macro-economics class. I have a BS (appropriately named) in economics but I hated it with a vengeance.

We can argue over how or why it's happening. But it doesn't matter, eventually the balloon will pop and then it will be like Medellin, 50% increase in the exchange rate.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:09 am 
PHD From Del Rey University!
User avatar

Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 8:07 am
Posts: 3337
Location: South Florida
El Tranquilo wrote:

Thanks much for this post. It does show major concern in the economic outlook for CR, but it should be highlighted that it never mentioned exchange rate controls. Mentioned was 'confidence loss' which directly affects the value of the currency on the global market, and it would be good to watch the foreign traders' reactions over the next few months.

Clearly the country has issues related to gov't spending. Sadly the objectives put forth by the IMF will have the same hardships affect on the population as this thread has been forecasting, albeit without the devaluation occurring. In fact, if the austerity measures are enacted, the effect would strengthen the colón while still hurting the local population (through reductions in social programs).

I really do like the Costa Rican people, and I hope that the government can find a middle way to address the issues.

_________________
bypassin' kinky, and usin' the whole chicken!!!


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:16 am 
PHD From Del Rey University!
User avatar

Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 8:07 am
Posts: 3337
Location: South Florida
Orange wrote:
Wow... it's like I'm back in my macro-economics class. I have a BS (appropriately named) in economics but I hated it with a vengeance.

We can argue over how or why it's happening. But it doesn't matter, eventually the balloon will pop and then it will be like Medellin, 50% increase in the exchange rate.

Again, my Spanish sucks, but where in the article is mentioned a 'balloon'? It seems to me that if they follow the IMF recommendations (which is doubtful), the currency would be strengthened, not weakened.

Now, if they continue to go their own way, then that 'loss of confidence' will happen and cause the colón to fall in value, globally. But this is not the same as a 'propping up' bubble-burst.

Interesting is that this exact thread subject has caused me to go back to my old Economics books from college. I ordered the Int'l Ec book I had to use (5th Ed) and received the 14th Ed (which covers the 2008 meltdown). It is interesting to see how things have 'changed' between 9 editions of the text. :shock:

_________________
bypassin' kinky, and usin' the whole chicken!!!


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:04 am 
Not a Newbie I just don't post much!

Joined: Sun May 31, 2015 9:47 am
Posts: 61
Economist and former currency trader here. Devaluation is the same thing as inflation, if you take inflation to mean a general increase in the level of prices (which is a common error in definitions but that's another story).
Politicians don't like inflation, it's unpopular, it's as simple as that. Central banks see it as a failure in their policies, so they also don't like it.
But CR is just delaying the inevitable. The colon is at least 20% over valued and maybe as much as 40%.
Why do I say that? Well I haven't done a study, but I know that when a burger and fries in CR costs double what it costs in North America, and the average salary here is about 1/3 of NA, then the currency is out of whack.
Take a look at the Brazilian real for a recent example of the phenomenon. I was in Rio and could barely afford to eat lunch, despite being a 'wealthy gringo' earning triple or quintuple what locals make. So it's blindingly obvious that something had to change.
The real subsequently dropped 40% in about a year.
It will happen here, but no telling when the pressure gets to be too much. My guess is another 2 years maximum.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 76 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next



All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:



Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group