www.CostaRicaTicas.com

So, I don't get to travel as much as some of you guys. I don't know all the tricks of when and where to get the best price for my plane ticket.

Anyway, I am trying to book a flight from Houston to SJO for mid-October. I checked flights and prices a couple of weeks ago, and they hovered around $630-$650. I just checked again earlier this week and it looks like they all have gone up by over $100.

My question is, should I wait and see if they go back down? Should I have gone ahead and pulled the trigger two weeks ago when they were cheaper. Do you thing the prices will go back down later, when everybody gets through booking their summer vacation flights maybe? I don't think October 11th through October 17th would be very popular time in CR. It's kinda between the Labor Day, and Halloween.

What do you guys think; too soon or too late?

_________________
I can't deny it, with that smile on her face. It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase!

I just checked online and spoke with a couple of colleagues about airfare no more than 6 hours ago. I saw your message and checked again. There are fares available right now from IAH to SJO for around $630. It might not be the non-stop that you want, but they are there.

First of all -- and central to this discussion -- the airfare did not go up by $100. The airline simply sold out of the $630 fares (on those non-stop flights from Houston). More may become available later, but that's simply a matter of how many seats get sold versus how many the airlines think that they should sell.

The "slow times" do often mean lower fare availability, especially in international markets, as airlines wish to keep their routes open. However, airlines know when the high seasons and low seasons are, and will adjust flight schedules accordingly, keeping prices at profitable levels as best they can.

Your October fares are available now at fare codes "S" and "W". That means that you have about a 50% chance of beating that fare between now and October, if you're intent on departing from Houston on a published fare. There are some tricks to get to SJO cheaper, but it's not something I would recommend.

One other caveat is that the airlines will publish one more fare schedule between now and October. However, I sincerely doubt that will have a major effect on IAH-SJO fares.

EDIT: 50% chance -- oops! What a difference a keystroke makes.

One of my wings (member here) flies that same flight, and as we chat about our dates and what we spend on airfare, that flight is all over the place, I would keep an eye on it he has said its goneat low as 540

As a rule of thumb , though it does not always apply 54 days out seems to be the overall best date to get the lowest fare if available.

Reset or "target" dates are common in the airline industry. However, the use of specific "days in advance" dates are largely urban legends, based upon previous experiences that drastically over-simplify the situation. Also, regarding Mr. Chilimike's note that sometimes the fare dips to $540... If it still exists today, that $540 fare is sitting there waiting, even today -- right now, at this very moment. It's waiting for the airline to "release" it for sale. The price of a seat does not go up and down very much at all, it simply is available or not available at certain "fare codes."

I notice now that United has no "sLUT" fares available out of IAH. That's an indication that, if you REALLY want that non-stop out of IAH, it would pay to wait. October is still 6 months away. You can't even access the seat maps for those flights yet. However, if an L, U, or T fare does show up, you are playing better odds if you just go ahead and buy it as soon as you see it. It might not be $540, but it's a good bet.

WAIT A FEW MORE MONTHS... these days the fares are very unstable due to oil prices so booking too far out will end up costing you. Airlines have to hedge against a large increase in oil prices by raising fares far out due to the uncertainty. As it gets closer, within 45-60 days, you will start to see truer fares. 6 months out is WAY too early too book. I would check periodically, set some price alerts on various sites, and really start to shop around mid to late August, depending on when in October you plan to go.

This is false logic (no offense) based upon a preconception about how airlines do business. The fuel going in the airplanes in October has already been bought, in many cases, up to one year ago or more. And the airlines will buy today the fuel that is going in the airplanes next year. That's not to say that they won't add a "fuel surcharge" to the fares, but they won't generally change the base fares that much. The uncertainty is priced into the fares, whether you buy a ticket for October or Tomorrow. You still pay for that uncertainty, even if you buy a ticket for tomorrow, to spread that cost among all of the airline's customers.

Many of the best deals in airline travel are bought one year in advance, and many more are bought 6 months in advance. It's never too early to book. Also, it's never too late to wait for a good fare. It's a contradiction, in which you are betting, just as if you were in Las Vegas, that a better "fare" will appear. The airlines take advantage of this misunderstanding to prevent people from knowing when the best fares are available, even though they telegraph that knowledge to you every day. The airlines don't want you to know when the best fare is available, so that you can't play their fare-manipulation game. The only exceptions are the so-called "fare sales", which is usually (but not always) a panic sale by the airlines to get "T" fares sold to fill up empty airplanes. Empty airplanes still have to fly.

I just did a quick search for a round-trip from IAH to SJO for May, June, July, August, September, and October. Except for July, the available fares are all between $613 and $650. July spiked up to $730, and sure enough, those fares are not sLUT fares. If you're traveling in July, it would pay to wait at least one more month to book. For the other months, the chances of beating the current fares are 50% or less.

Go to Kayak.com and put in your dates and see the fare.
Then look at the graphs on the left side of the screen predicting if the fares are expected to go up or down in the next few weeks or months.
You can also set up a "price alert" with them to inform you when the fare goes down.
You have time to see how it works before you decide what is beat for you.

_________________
Softbob

There is nothing either good or bad
but thinking makes it so.
HAMLET

I know you think you know what you are talking about, but what you wrote is mostly wrong.

In 2014, not many airlines are hedging fuel because it seems like futures are pricy. The biggest airline, American (US Air), are not hedging at all, per company policy. Others only have a minority percentage of 2014 fuel hedged. So your statement about airlines already having bought fuel for the year is about 95% false.

Unless an airline has some super promo fare way in advance, you usually get raped by booking 6 months out. All travel consultants that I have seen or heard in the past few years have said to buy no more than 60 days out, and most say closer to 30.

Nobody, not even airline staff, knows how the system actually prices the seats one minute to the next. Obviously, supply and demand (and expected demand) factor in but there are lots of others factors (competition, number of airlines serving destination from said airport, time of year, etc etc.)

50 bucks here and there
big f'kg deal. Enjoy the good time in CR and cut down on starbucks in gringaville.
Problem solved.

My experience has been that there is no rhyme or reason to the airline ticket prices. I have booked as far as 6 months out and as close as 1 month out. I have not observed any direct correlation between date of booking and ticket price. If you read travel blogs like Flyer Talk I think you will find experiences similar to mine. CRT has thousands of members and you would think that somebody here works in this industry and could provide some clarification.

Devo

_________________
The most dangerous adversaries are the ones that come with a smile instead of a sword

Forget the "experts." From my experience, anytime after Labor Day and before Thanksgiving is off peak season... which your trip falls in. Using Kayak (desktop), you can see monthly prices that people have paid. Look for the lowest price and use that as a baseline to get a low price. You have now until roughly 2 months before to try to get that rate. Once 2 months before comes, I would start panicking... Sunday returns get booked up and things become less flexible.

Good luck!

Good advice - IMO, way too early to start booking now - look 6 - 8 weeks prior to your trip - as far as off season, you are booking at the height - not a bad thing, especially if your activities tend to be of the, ahem, indoor type

United flight (assuming USAir) from Columbus OH to SJO is $646 in October and it connects in IAH.

As of March 30th, United and US Airways no longer co-share.

In addition to kayak, try airfare watch dog for alerts when fares drop.

I checked fares out of Kansas City with a IAH connection. MCI to SJO was cheaper than IAH to SJO, so go figure. Rates were still a bit too rich with my late booking, so this upcoming trip is with frequent flyer miles.