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The 2005 Kentucky Derby:

Just thought I’d chime in hear as a horse enthusiast and handicapper, for tomorrows Run For the roses. First off with a 20 horse field, it is very difficult to find value in betting favorites. So many bad things can happen in a horse race with that many breaking and with that much traffic it really does become a crap shoot, but more like a proposition bet.

Regardless let us 1st look at facts. Since 1929, only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby with a DI over 4.00. II will not get into what a DI is just that in this year's field, two colts exceeded that limit: Giacomo (4.33) and Wilko (7.00). SO going on stats Throw them out.

Dosage "dual-qualifiers" are horses that have a DI of 4.00 or lower and were listed as the high weight, or within 10 pounds of the high weight, on the Experimental Handicap that ranks the previous year's top 2-year-olds.
There are two dual-qualifiers in this Derby: Sun King and Afleet Alex. Sun King was everyone’s derby favorite up to his most recent race which was awful, which can be attributed to a terrible ride, but I personally do not like horses coming out of Tampa, so I’m tossing Sun King.

The well deserving favorite here is Bellamy Road a Nick Zito horse owned by George Steinbrenner. This horse destroyed the Wood field at Belmont matching the track record that stands for over 30 years and is clearly if he runs to form the horse to beat. Biggest fear is that he has NEVER run behind other horses and with two speed balls in the race one being Spanish chestnut he can find himself in a bad position of speed dual that will show whether he can be rated, and if he truly is a champion.

Afleet Alex is a horse with only 1 bad race and that was due to a lung infection. His last race he destroyed the field and his Beyer Numbers are just below the favorite Bellamy road. This horse with his just off the pace running style can clearly be the one to to beat, but I still like Bellamy road on top with Afleet Alex a clear cut 2nd and these two heads and shoulders above the rest.

High Fly coming out of Gulfstream off a 5 week layoff is an interesting horse. The FLA Derby winner is the real unknown here as typically horses can not win with this layoff with only 2 preps in a derby year. I like this horse regardless of the above.

My long shot is Don’t get mad! This is a late entry to the field of 20 running last week in the 1 mile Derby Trial and flying home on this Churchill track. With that late speed at a mile and ¼ I like to use him in my exotics. He will be long shot but I like him for 3rd or 4th.

Bhandini who I think is slightly overrated is a good horse, with a ton of upside and late speed traditionally that combination does not win here but does get a piece of the exotics as well.


WIN PLACE 16 Bellamy Road
Exacta Box 16 / 12 Bellamy Road Afleet Alex
Trifecta 16 / 12 with 15 / 17 / 11
Trifecta 12 / 16 with 15 / 17 / 11
Superfecta 12 / 16 with 15 /17/11
Superfecta 16 /12 with 15 /17/ 11
GOOD LUCK!

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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"