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The day I wait for year in and year out is upon us. Alas I did not go to Kentucky this year but chose to instead go to Gulfstream with Gamlingman and bet in the quiet comforts of the Ten Palms Dining room today. What has to be the deepest Derby field in history according to almost every major player in the horseracing industry, does not in this humble handicappers opinion seem all that deep. I truly feel this has boiled down to 5 horses maybe 6 and the other 14/15 are just there for a 1 1/4 jog around the track. Well based on the bombs that continue to win this thing Animal Kingdom last year etc, you really can't count anyone out but for my purposes I'm going with my instinct and giving you the best of the best in this so called deep field.

My 5 Top Horses in NO PARTICULAR ORDER will be followed with betting strategy at the end.

Take Charge Indy: Florida Derby winner got away with modest pace and was lucky enough to not have Union Rags catch a good trip. Still Fla Derby winners have to be respected not to mention, he has the red hot 3 Derby's recently Calvin Borel riding him. Out of AP Indy & Take Charge Lady, a Grandson to Seattle Slew No other horse boasts the breeding of a derby horse than this guy. Already bet down on early wagering to 10-1 from 15-1 morning line, betting public sees what I see a real contender here.

Union Rags: Should have been undefeated Juvinelle champion but somewhere along the way a white horse named Hansen got in the way. That a jockey switch to Julian Leparoux and a terrible trip / ride in the Florida derby has everyone looking at this horse as overrated. Now he is the favorite in early betting. I don't like Julian a closing jockey on a stalking horse and his beyers are not very good to be honest with you. Great trainer Michal Matz (Barbaro) knows how to get his horse ready for the big one if he has the stuff he wins simple as that. Question is, is he better than his numbers indicate.

Bodemeister: The unraced 2 year old trying to buck 143 years of history but not running at two years old and winning a derby. Clearly he will need to be a BEAST to win this race.. From the 6 hole he will get pinched inside and we are not quite sure how being a little green he will handle the crunch, the traffic the dirt. Honestly and easily the most talented horse in the field. If he gets a clean trip 140 plus years or not he wins easily.

Creative Cause 8-8 in the money never beaten more than a lenght in any race great breeding and he beat the favorite Bodemeister. Harrington and Rosario don't inspire confidence with me here and I'm never a fan of California horses in the derby but you simply can't say he has no chance.

Gemologist: 5-5 Undefeated horse out of Tiznow with Todd Pletcher & Javier Castellano on board. Do I need to say more? best tandem in the country and undefeated horse and getting a great price on him in my opinon 5-8 to 1 somewhere in there makes him the value bet on the board. Can't fault this horse other than week race numbers. Best Jockey trainer tandem in world.

Others to consider: With the expected HOT PACE by Trinniberg this could set up for a deep closer like Dullahan. things to consider Dullahan has been awful on dirt 0-3 and unless the track changes nobody coming from off the pace in routes on dirt at Churchill this week are winning.

Alpha: My other horse based purely on breeding. Would have been my selection but another poor trip in the wood memorial then a subsequent cut on his leg, missed week of training and poor race #'s has me saying Creative cause in his spot.


With all that said WHAT TO DO What to do? I'm thinking a nice box of my horses for Trifecta and Superfecta is the smart play with a nice exacta box as well. How do I throw out Hansen has been the question all week. Simply stated I don't think he gets the last furlong. He has not rated well, and with all the early speed the race doesn't shape up well for him.

Jerry Bailey playing golf the other day with me and Tomas told us it is about who has the racing luck and he likes Union Rags. I simply don't get the Union Rags vibe he does not seem to win the big one. I'm going with the Undefeated horse and the best trainer Combination in the world Javier & Todd. Gemologist is my Kentucky Derby Selection.

5 Horse Box "Gemologist, Union Rags, Creative Cause, take Charge Indy & Bodemeister"
3-4-6-8-15
$1.00 Trifecta bet $60.00
$1.00 Superfecta bet $120.00
$5.00 Exacta Box 15 With 3-4-6-8 ($40.00)
$30.00 Win Place Show #15 Gemologist
Total Bet for me $350.00

Good Luck and bet with your head not over it

PS: LONGSHOT WATCH OF THE DAY RACE 3 #8 RESOLVING!

9:28AM UPDATE: Although Harrington trainer of Creative Cause said there is no issue and he WOULD NOT SCRATCH - there are rumors swirling if he does Scratch USE ALPHA in Creative Causes Spot.

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Still pissed off about no .10 supers.They can have them every day of the meet but dont offer them on oaks/derby day.

Thanks CRT Handicapper now where are your picks for Talladaga?

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