As we arrive at what all Horse players call the Super Bowl of Racing.. .Kentucky Derby Day ( personally I like the Breeders Cup) the most exciting two minutes in sports happens today around 6:30PM EST at historic Churchill downs. Visiting Churchill last year I couldn't help but be overcome with the history of the place even if the makeup, of the track and its surrounding area left me feeling as Teddy KGB said "Unsatisfied"
I must admit the proximity to the track, the old seats, the battered worn grandstands, made me feel like the first time I had gone to Yankee Stadium or when I visited Fenway Park or Wrigley Field. The new places are nice, fancy, but wow talk about history. You have to be a Horse Player to understand just as if you are a Green Bay Fan, Bears Fan, etc visiting those historic stadiums.
With that said I've waited for this year's Derby like no other before. Possibly because I've been to the track more this year than any time in my history since I permanently retired and moved to Hallandale beach about 2 miles from Gulfstream Park. There I watched breakfast with the Jockeys, horses train, been to the track 2-3 times per week, saw all the Florida Prep Races, all the horses in person, went to California with GMAN and to the Santa Anita Derby saw all those horses, and as recently as last Friday was able to go to Palm Meadows with a unnamed "Hall of Fame Jockey" to watch today's Derby Favorite put in his final work out Dialed In.
First off our Hall of Fame Jockey who I've played golf with multiple times over the last 5 months, has about as much idea who will win this race as I do. Every time he gives me a horse, he runs up the track or in this case he finally got on the "Uncle Mo" band wagon and of course the horse is scratched. Well it goes to show you how tough this one is, and I can honestly say that this is by far the most wide open affair that I've ever seen.
Enough of the preamble as we get ready to head to Gulfstream for a day of simulcast and the big one later. We will be at the Ten Palms Dining room if any of you boys in South FLA want to come by. So let's break this down of the horses that Can't Win to eliminate shall we say the Shouldn't be able to win guys and go from there. Please note that I didn't say they can't be on your Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta tickets just not as your KEY HORSE.
The Can't wins and why's.
Midnight Interlude – Because no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without having started at 2.
Archarcharch – No one wins from post 1, the least desirable post. The last horse to do it was Ferdinand 25 years ago. Skeptical of him before Ark. Derby, but that race, plus strong works at Churchill, move him way up. Unfortunately # 1 Hole is his demise.
Nehro – Most of the clockers felt he had one of the least impressive, or maybe even THE least impressive, final Derby work. Derby distance is right up his alley. Certainly was flattered by race shape of Arkansas Derby. He'll get lots of pace to run at again, though; only problem I have is I suspect he'll be an underlay
Soldat – No horse has ever won the Derby from post 17. But Love his running style and throw out the Fla Derby this battle tested horse may not win but is on my tickets.
Animal Kingdom – No horse has ever won the Derby who had never run on dirt.
Brilliant Speed - Don't like a horse who is a pure turf / Synthetic specialist. His fast dirt form, even if early in career, is awful.
Derby Kitten: Only wins were in a maiden claimer on turf, and a weak Lexington on Polytrack. Hard to endorse. He has gotten better with every start this year, but his one dirt race last year was really poor.
Master of Hounds: Tough to get a line on him. Never has been on dirt, just one start this year, has been in Ireland. He's also essentially a second stringer, so if he wins, then this really is a pretty weak group. As Johnny Fontaine said "NO CHANCE"
Pants On Fire: Beat Nehro in the La. Derby; Napravnik trying to become the first female rider to win the Derby, also only 2 jockeys in history have won the derby on their first try... He was fortunate to catch Nehro when he did, because Nehro has improved; will be close to pace. But run out of gas.
Santiva: Owns an important win over this track last fall; didn't have a clean run in final Derby prep race. Despite his stakes win over the track, he doesn't have even one race that says he can win this.
Stay Thirsty: Ran dreadfully in Florida Derby, and was crushed by stable mate Uncle Mo here in Breeders' Cup. What Jay says is true, but his Gotham two back was solid; rebound chance for a piece at a price Pletcher and Dominguez... One Hall of fame Jockey recently told me the most Overrated jockey in the game. Hmm I'll pass.
Twinspired: Tough loss in Blue Grass, but dirt form is suspect; at the least, he will be a hunch bet for many, name wise and because he has the Great Mike Smith on him. "Still have my picture with Mike Smith on my wall in my office" Can't root against Mike, but really don't like his chances at all.
Decisive Moment: There is a lot of clutter in this Derby field. Hard to envision him even getting a piece of this, doesn't belong.
Watch Me Go: With the exception of the Tampa Bay Derby, his form isn't much. Looks like he is a cut below.
Twice The Appeal: Will get a second look, and be a far lower price than he should be, because of Churchill & Derby whiz Calvin. Should be 100-1, I wanted to make him 50-1, but it appears he will be lower, and that is crazy. Nope not today.
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The Rest
Dialed In: Morning line and early betting favorite Zito has adjusted to his colt's needs with a light training schedule, and he has produced looking good. Problem is why only work him twice as he is a lightly raced colt unless he has a physical problem to go with it. Not to mention a stone closer who can't rate off the lead. in the last 50 years only two horses have won who have NOT BEEN IN FRONT at the 1/8th poll. He tends to get to the front late, and trying to get around 18 other horses down the stretch with horses backing up etc make this a go against as the favorite. Also only Big Brown in 137 years has won after racing only 4 times. Can't make him my main play but he stays on my exotics.
Midnight Interlude: It is very difficult to go from unstated maiden to Kentucky Derby winner in less than four months. Won a weakened SA Derby, but on the plus side, it was a breakthrough for him Beyer-wise. But difficult race might have taken a bit out of him Possible Regress
Mucho Macho Man:." Ritvo" the trainers story is unbelievable with the Heart Transplant and all. At the Holy Bull he was by far the Largest Horse I've seen this year to that point. He is only really 2 years old as a late blooming colt does not turn 3 until June. This colt has heart. He is also one of six in here coming off a six week layoff I think is too long, but he tends to run a bad race with a good race has the breeding to go the 1 1/4 and the race style to do it. He is on my Tickets.
Comma to the Top: Early Speed Horse Can't envision scenario for success with Shackleford to deal with early, and many others late. Likeable gelding, but if he couldn't win the SA Derby after controlling pace, how can he win this?
Shackleford: The biggest most muscular horse in the field Looks wise he is Arnold In his prime... Florida Derby performance was outstanding; took the heat, nailed late by the Derby favorite. His effort was good, but outstanding? If anything, the track was speed favoring, time was slow, and Dialed in still got him. Will go to the front and give backers a run for their money but can't see a repeat here.
With that said what does this all mean. As previously stated I don't have a clue. Wide Open.. I'm going with my first instinct upon seeing a horse this year as well as what my #'s show after handicapping this thing.
$20.00 Win Place Show #13 Mucho Macho Man $60.00
$1 Exacta Box 13,1,8,17,19 $20.00
$2 Exacta 13 With 1-8-17-19 and 1-8-17-19 with 13 $16.00
$1 Trifecta Box 1-8-13-17-19 $60.00
.30 Cent Superfecta Box 1-18-13-17-19 $36.00
Total Bet $192.00
There you have it Bet with your head not over it MUCHO MACHO MAN HAS won the Kentucky Derby.. Well one can hope
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