Let us thank our CRT Handicapper for taking the time to put together this composite for our Horse players on tomorrows Kentucky Derby!
Its Derby Day (Well Tomorrow anyway) My 2nd favorite day of the year right next to Breeders cup which I will once again have the ability to attend this year with Gamlingman at the Turf Club at Santa Anita! Everyone wants to know if they know me, so G-man has given me permission to post our photo from last year's Breeders cup in the VIP Photos section Members with or without ladies. I'm sure I have met a few of you over our travels to CR and met Snooky this year at the Florida
Derby! OK Back to Basics.
If you look below you will see the article I wrote with regards to my Top 10 a few weeks back. Earlier in the year Dunkirk was my special horse than Quality Road broke him down at the Fla Derby but even in defeat his second place finish according to my #'s were better than every other horse in the race tomorrow not withstanding his competition.
If this year's Derby wasn't tough enough let us now throw in RAIN and a sloppy track to factor in and how will they handle it? OY I am as confused as ever but eventually a selection has to be made.
Let's say this on Paper its a two horse race according to my handicapping software and my observance of these horses and races over the last 4 months. The loss of Quality Road puts a damper on things, as he would have been the next best SUPER HORSE in my opinion, but now we have to look for quality and value at the same time.
Everyone loves Pioneer of the Nile, I still can't get over never run on Dirt and now a sloppy track to book, has to be thrown out. He can win but I don't care not on my ticket.
Leaving me with the following.
4-1 # 15 Dunkirk: My original choice 3 months ago. Still never won a graded stakes race and not having run at 2 years old without tactical speed makes him tough to select even though he is the highest rated horse by 3 / 4 lengths on my software.
3-1 # 13 I want revenge two great races on dirt the last a character check with bad racing luck and still overcoming incredible bad spots by jockey Joe Talamo. 19 years old and maybe OVER HIS HEAD HERE, but the most seasoned battle tested horse with great #'s and likely the favorite but without value.
5-1 #6 Friesens Fire: Party of me wants Larry Jones to get this win, as his tragic loss of eight belles last year along with hard fighting Hard spun two years ago. He was going to be my key horse until my software gave him such bad numbers he should even be at the Derby according to my #'s. Now he has to figure back as his MONSTER WIN last time out was in the slop and with an off track looming you can't discount. Early speed if he gets soft fractions he can run off.
As far as the rest, honestly 8 other horses can win this thing so whatever I give you, do so with a grain of salt as this is a good shot to make a score but as tough as they come.
WHO CAN UPSET?
Musket Man: Two grade 1 wins IMPRESSIVELY his last two starts
Papa Clem Training well, bullet yesterday in prep looks ready
Desert Party Dubai ship in with tons of talent as 2 year old hasn't run his best race yet an unknown not back in the states but at 15-1 someone to watch
50-1 #20 Flying Private: Last race was making a huge move but Ocampo the Jockey screwed up the run as he ran him in to a wall of horses, stopped went around still made another run and D Wayne lukas as the trainer and at 50-1 good price for a good horse his best is yet to come and picks up Robbie Albarado.
I think the winner comes from this 7 now how do you narrow it down? Beat the hell out of me but you have to. All I can say is I am going with the Florida horse. They tend to do well out of the Florida Derby producing more Kentucky Derby winners than any prep race. Young, fresh and should be ready. The slop can turn this all into one big disaster so bet cautiously. But I loved him 1st time I saw him go back to January when I wrote about this horse, so I will stay with him.
Top choice #15 Dunkirk WIN PLACE $20.00 Total Bet $40.00
Exact Box $10.00 #15 with 13 and 6 Total Bet $40.00
Trifecta Box $4.00 #'s 15, 13. 6 Total Bet $24.00
Trifecta Key $2.00 #15 with 6, 13, With 2,7,19,20 Total Bet $16.00
Trifecta Key $2.00 #6,13 with #15 with 2,7,19,20 Total bet $16.00
Superfecta Key $1.00 #15 with 6, 13, With 2,7,19,20 with 2,7,19,20 Total bet $24.00
Superfecta Key $1.00 #6,13 with #15 with 2,7,19,20 with 2,7,19,20 Total Bet $24.00
Total Outlay for Me $184.00
Of course you can cut back your wagers to keep it under $100.00 but this is my original bet but may go more in the win place pockets or the exactas GOOD LUCK TO ALL! And remember bet with your head not over it!
Quote:
PREVIOUS ARTICLE:
orry if this sounds like it belongs on Kentucky Derby.com but this is what I do more than anything so this is my Super Bowl.
First off A pleasure meeting Snooky and his heavy hitters at the Fla Derby this year, Sorry I thought you knew who I was.
Lemon Drop K*D, havent been in Vegas since January Superbow, and won't get back there till mabye Mid May so have no idea what the Hilton is planning. Will say this place has gone so down hill. I love the Red Rock for Ponies by far best Sportsbook for horses in the world.
After spending this winter in South Florida with at least a dozen mornings at the Palm Meadows training facility, and every single weekend at Gulfstream, I have concluded the following.
One this will be by far the best derby field in well over 25 years and maybe be the best field I have seen in my 55 years. Second there are at least 10 horses that absolutely can win and racing luck and jockey’s & trainers will have more of an outcome than ever with this big a group of quality 3 year olds.
With that said here is my Derby Top 10 heading into next weeks Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass.
Heres my Derby Top 10
1. Quality Road
2. I Want Revenge
3. Friesens Fire
4. Dunkirk
5. Big Drama (Not planning on Running)
6. Musket Man
7. Desert Party
8. The Pamplemouse
9. Pioneer of the Nile
10. Old Fashioned
Have seen Quality road train in the AM, as well as watched him in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. He has the absolute perfect temperament to run off the pace and close which is absolutely essential in the derby. He can rate and explode, not to mention he is the biggest phucking horse I have ever seen up close 17 hands and he is athletic. The fact that he won at two turns and 2 of the last 3 derby winners Barbaro & Big Brown both came out of the Fla Derby off 5 week layoffs looks big as the rest with a fresh horse seems to really play big here.
I want revenge; ok chilly day here in NYC yesterday went to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial, (WHAT A DUMP) biggest day of the year NOBODY HERE. Joe Talamo literally blew the race left the horse in the gate and than got in behind horses in the stretch and still HAND RODE HIM home, (NOTE DROPPED WHIP). Two huge moves, horse is the real deal winning both Gotham, and Wood, though can’t remember a Derby winner making this tour of NYC tracks and winning the big one.
Friesens Fire. Much will be revealed this week, not to mention if he is a Synthetic horse only. Will say his last race was best move in the stretch on real dirt this year, litterally explosive. Lets watch with great interest Saturday to see if he can repeat!
Dunkirk My guess is he won’t get in with only 150K in graded Earnings, but if he does he needs to break better than he did in the Florida Derby. He makes one big sweeping move, and can’t be 15 – 20 back in the derby he will never get by the field. Note Quality road looked him in the eye and said PHUCK YOU, and toasted him. Can be a player but will have to improve seems a bit young yet unraced as two year old.
Big Drama: Connections state no derby on the horizon but watch out for this horse. Won a 7 furlong sprint (Swale Stakes) and has one at two turns. If they run him, BIG is one to watch out of.
Musket Man: What can you say ran big in Tampa Bay Derby, and Illinois Derby, not the greatest tracks or competition in the world but does what he is asked, Part of the pie maybe!
Desert Party; maybe because the sheiks think they can buy a derby and train better than our US trainers pisses me off a bit, but still one of the best 2 year olds last year and getting better. Tough to come from Dubai though.
The Pamplemouse: Very disappointed that he was scratched / injured and did not run in Santa Anita Derby. By far in my opinion best horse out west. Health and questions about how he will handle real dirt make him bottom of the draw. Plus Hank Goldberg the worst handicapper in the country loves him so well you know!
Pioneer of the Nile: Winner of Santa Anita Derby unproven on Dirt and runs greenly. Simply stated would have to mature in a hurry to win the big one.
Old Fashioned Everyone’s early season favorite has well been left behind. Questions about his pedigree for the 1 mile and ¼ keep popping up. Lets see him run in Arkansas Derby Saturday and will get a better view of how he looks.
So there you have it.. My top 10… Still like Quality Road and I want Revenge problem is with this top 10 quality field there will be no value betting favorites which Road and Revenge will be 1 and 2. But one more big weekend to see than we can watch how they work up to the derby much can change in 27 days!
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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"
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