www.CostaRicaTicas.com

Agree totally with Brother Nuck, with another kicker--in the next 20 or so years all the housing owned by boomers wil start to come on the market with fewer people to buy them, with fewer resources to buy them. Huge supply, less demand, and more stringent mortgage controls--you do the math.

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"A man accustomed to hear only the echo of his own sentiments, soon bars all the common avenues of delight, and has no part in the general gratification of mankind"--Dr. Johnson
"Amen, brother"-ED

Sorry do not buy that for several reasons. The population of the United States continues to grow so the demand for housing is ever increasing even with the baby boomers selling. Boomers if and when they sell are mostly downsizing not pulling out of the housing market. The proposed controls, which by the way do not take effect until 2009 and apply only to sub prime loans, are nothing more then the controls that were historically in place for many years before the fiscal insanity took over the housing/mortgage industry.

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Pura Vida
Only Irish coffee provides in a single glass all four
essential food groups:
alcohol, caffeine, sugar and fat.
Alex Levine

I think the poster on this was suggesting that in 20 years the boomers would be migrating straight up and wouldn't be having need of housing anymore.

Yes, I HOPE to be here 20 more years, but it's quite possible I'll be on the other side of the great divide.

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"The only normal people are those you don't know very well." Joe Ancis

Yes, Brothers Bilko and Jsmythe got it mostly right but then so did IrishDrifter. At least on the East Coast a lot of the boomer downsizing is empty-nesters going back into cities into condos, co-ops and the like. And of course our population is growing but that growth is coming from those who can not or will not afford the affluent housing the boomers are leaving (at least not for 15 or so years or until their 2nd generation is mature). The amount of money sent out of the U. S. in the form of remittances to home countries by 1st generation immigrants is astounding, and those folks strap themselves hard to do it--self-denial like old-line Americans seem incapable of. Many of them as well send the money "home" with strong plans to follow it when they retire. Also, whether there's JOB growth or not, there is no real WAGE growth (quite the opposite in fact) in the U. S. and hasn't been for some time now. Also other-than-housing expenses will soak up a greater part of those reduced wages into the forseeable future (for which read, fuel including home heating, food, etc). So I ask again, who's going to buy the bulked-up fully-kitted-houses the boomers will be leaving?

FULL DISCLOSURE: I bought my 1st housing 4 years ago at 58, and it's a 40-year-old 50-foot trailer, somewhat akin to what Circus's persona lives in. I'm an outsider looking in.

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"A man accustomed to hear only the echo of his own sentiments, soon bars all the common avenues of delight, and has no part in the general gratification of mankind"--Dr. Johnson
"Amen, brother"-ED

The "affluent housing" the boomers are leaving is going down the tubes. It only existed on paper unless they have already sold their homes and taken the money and ran. The housing market is going to return to the normal good investment that it has traditionally been in the economy. Yes I benefited from the idiocy of the real estate boom selling my house for 214% more than I paid for it in only 8 years. Could I do that today? NO. Could I do that 8 years from now? UNLIKELY.



That supposes the bulk of the population growth will occur with immigration, legal and illegal, rather then by the usual increase in US citizen birth rate vs death rate. What evidence supports that assumption? There are legal immigrants who send money back to families in their home country but still manage to buy homes here.

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Pura Vida
Only Irish coffee provides in a single glass all four
essential food groups:
alcohol, caffeine, sugar and fat.
Alex Levine

IrishDrifter supposes that U. S. population growth will come from other than immigration--this is a contrary-to-fact supposition. The NYTimes Magazine 2 weeks ago had a cover story on exactly this subject although they were talking about the graying and emptying out of Europe. Japan is in even in a worse fix because they support no immigration wharsoever. At least we have some immigration and so does Europe (Turks and the Muslim world, principally). It's a demographic fact that immigrants always and everywhere are younger and have more Ch*ldren per couple than the older, more affluent population they are joining. We need this infusion for a myriad of reasons and I for one celebrate it, but they aren't going to be needing or buying McMansions anytime soon.
I'm glad ID did well in his home sales and hope everybody else reading this screed did equally well, but the housing markets's self-correcting is going to take a long, long time and those trapped will be in pain for nearly that long. I would dearly love to be wrong in everything I've asserted here but don't think I am.

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"A man accustomed to hear only the echo of his own sentiments, soon bars all the common avenues of delight, and has no part in the general gratification of mankind"--Dr. Johnson
"Amen, brother"-ED

Housing wont come back until end of 2009 at the earliest. Renting a house MUST be somewhat close to mortgage payments and insurance before we can hit bottom and bounce up.

BTW nice timing ID is that return on leveraged principal or return on whole house. Either way nice cash out

As I am sure you are aware it can be misleading extrapolating data from one continent and trying to apply it another. It also should be noted that most European countries have much less restrictive immigration policies toward there former colonies then countries who did not have colonial empires in the past.

The United States is hardly emptying out. The following figures are all from the United States census bureau and are the latest available (2007)

Birth Rate 14.20/1000
Death Rate 8.30/1000
Population Growth Rate 1% (That equals over 3,000,000 people per year)

I think there will be more than ample population to cover the loss of the boomers who have a life expectancy well over 70.

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Pura Vida
Only Irish coffee provides in a single glass all four
essential food groups:
alcohol, caffeine, sugar and fat.
Alex Levine

I concede to Brother IrishDrifter lest this thread get tedious and we lose the audience. So to return to the original theme, "Who's watching CR real estate prices?" and when will CR real estate bottom out?

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"A man accustomed to hear only the echo of his own sentiments, soon bars all the common avenues of delight, and has no part in the general gratification of mankind"--Dr. Johnson
"Amen, brother"-ED

Prices have already dropped across the board more than 25%. That isn't exactly "bottom out", but it's significant.

I've lived here for almost 6 years now, and the same pieces of land and houses are still for sale in the Central Valley. I can't comment too much on beach property, I try to stay away from that area.

If you look at the property available around Escazu, Santa Ana, Rohrmoser, Sabana, Colon, and Heredia you will see that all areas have been hit hard. There is far more inventory, and far more"incentive" to dump. The Cariari area still has more than 70% of all properties on the market (no big surprise).

You throw a rock in this country, and you hit a lawyer, real estate seller, and a taxi driver. Everyone has property they can sell you, and the price of that property has been rapidly declining.

Just this week with the increase in Colons per Dollar, and the subsequent interest rate hike on mortgages, you can guarantee that housing costs are going to take another huge hit.

Most older properties take 2 to 3 years to sell, if ever, here.

I'll leave you with the advice that everyone should remember...

"Don't put any money into Costa Rica that you can't afford to lose"

The prices really haven't dropped at the beach, but according to a real estate agent I had lunch with a few weeks ago, sales aren't good. Not like the condo folks are claiming.. A few projects have already called it quits from what I have heard.

Great time to start a graveyard!

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Major General Tica Tang

I know many of the developers and they are absolutely dying. There are no sales taking place. Europeans are not "coming in droves" as is the hype. Baby boomers are not retiring here so fast either. ANd those who may want to are not b/c they can't sell their homes in The US.

Furthermore, I don't care how you slice or dice it, but when a condo costs the same or close to it in Jaco as it does in South Florida, then the value obviously remains in the USA. Yeah, we have gringas , but property on good ole USA soil is still more valuable and in the future more liquid. Get ready b/c whole projects are and will continue to collapse in CR. There will be empty buildings and unfinished construction shells. US developers did themselves in by charging US prices for CR property. It is still a 3rd world no matter how much we love the place and romanticize about living there, current residents, excluded.

People always ask me about the best place to buy real estate right now, and I can't help but think Florida, especially the SW coast where lots that used to cost $50-$60K are now $7-$10k. Real estate, like stocks, is best to buy when noone wants it and the herd is running away from it. BTW, when the masses start investing in oil, then we should see it drop


Now, what about the Tica's? I was just in MDE and I still think I like the Tica's more. Jury is out! Paisas are more sincere and reliable though.


PURA VIDA!


PS ONE MORE THING, wait to see what happens when many CR developers start defaulting on their CR loans. On another note, it was the absolutely ridiculously cheap prices that once made CR so desirable to those who got here before the herd.

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Livin' & Lovin' in Key Largo....oh....And the one in The Keys, too!

I'm trying to get a handle on the market. My business assoiciate is an engineer and costs projects, particularly high rise stuff. He said there is way too much construction. Another long time former Peace Corp worker turned entreprenuer has said that condo purchase costs in Escazu is $1000 a square meter.