www.CostaRicaTicas.com

For those of you who don't know, the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) is a trade agreement similar to NAFTA only it is between the USA, the Dominican Republic and several Central American countries, including CR. The agreement was established by representatives of each country, and all agreed. CAFTA was then taken back to each country's legislature, and all have passed it except CR. I understand that CR is likely to approve CAFTA this year. The agreement will take immediate effect and will reduce or eliminate duty on goods traded between the participating countries.

Who wants to take a stab at economic projections....? Will CR increase imports from the USA and vice-versa? Will this create increased US business travel and investment in CR? What effect will this have on the mongering scene? Will an increased supply of business travelers/mongers load the demand side for the services of the Chicas and cause prices to rise? Or will the Chicas respond by increasing their supply?

If there is an increase in the numbers of johns you might expect an increase in the average chica price. But this is still a supply(Chica) surplus environment. I don’t think that there is a shortage of young women willing to make a few dollars on the side. Maybe the increasing numbers of johns would draw and increase in willing ladies.

On a similar note….I understand the importance of negotiating with the chicas to keep prices low, but I wonder about the more complex economic forces are play..

– everyone has their price. In CR a hot 20-year-old is willing to sell herself for about $60. In my area, if you may find such a lady by extreme luck using an escort service, massage parlor, etc. - you would pay a minimum of around $140 in an Asian spa to a minimum of $200 for an escort. I stress the hit and miss component of USA mongering here vs. the freedom of choice in CR. Certainly guys in the USA willing to spend $1000 for an hour of fun would have it even easier to find that companionship.

Would it not follow then that if the chicas feel that all they can get for their poosey is $60 they (especially the hotter ones) might not want to work in the sex industry anymore? And if they got paid $200 per hour (not that I’m suggesting this) then there would probably be 3 times as many ladies packed into the BM on any given night. So I wonder if limiting price has other effects on the market ?

Just looking for some ideas.

CAFTA (TLC) supporters say it will increase prosperity in CR, opponents argue that it will increase poverty. I have my own opinion but I can speculate on what would happen in either case.

Were poverty to decrease significantly, I think the supply of chicas would diminish. How much the supply would diminish would also depend on the situation in neighboring countries. As we know, the DR is well stocked with Colombianas and Nicas, and some Dominicanas. If the economic condition of all countries were to rise equally and significantly it's likely the supply would drop. The key word here, though, is 'significantly.' How much is significant? I think the median income would have to rise a LOT, double even, before we would see a big change. I would like to live long enough to see that, but I kinda doubt I will.

If poverty were to increase, I think the effect would increase the supply, but realistically, it's not the total number of girls in the business that matters to most mongers. There are lots of bargain options that most just aren't interested in. The girls don't really compete on price. Mongers don't go for the cheapest, but rather for an appealing girl at a price in their 'comfort zone,' whatever it may be. I don't care to pay $100, $80 or even $70. Others aren't as cheap. But even in my cheapness, I don't go for the cheapest option. I know girls right now who rarely connect with a 'client.' Some come out early and leave before the busses stop because they don't have enough for a taxi ride to Desamparados. These aren't ugly girls, but they aren't 9s either. As was said above, there's already an ample supply of willing girls, and often (in their opinions, at least) a shortage of 'clients.' If things got a lot worse, the number of girls would probably increase but there's a sort of 'bottom' to how low prices can go based on cost of doing business. A chica has to be able to make enough to pay for her transportation, at minimum, plus (probably) a babysitter.

In my opinion, I doubt the agreement will make much difference on the mongering scene. Both monger and non-monger tourists don't come here because of a trade agreement, import duties and such. I don't see that changing.

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"The only normal people are those you don't know very well." Joe Ancis

This goes also to my second point/question. If a significant rise (say double) occured in the average non p4p income available to the average chica, many of these girls might leave or never get involved in the business.

On the flip side, if the average income derived from p4p for the chica were to be cut in 1/2 (say $100 to $50) then won't we find chicas leaving the p4p business (or never getting involved in the first place) in pursuit of more honorable work?

I believe Bilko's post is very accurate as to the realities of it all. I do believe from what I have seen that even if these chicas where able to hold a normal job at double the salaries that are now currently available to them they would still come out & play. A good deal of them are not that bothered by putting out for men & rather keep their own schedule as to have to be responsible for a real work schedule. Many get addicted to all the drama that comes with this life also even though many say they hate it.

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"Run silent, run deep"
Spunk glazed Chicas are the building blocks of the universe!

My projections:






I'll keep my response to the part that I am comfortable with. An effect that will be seen immediately will be the price of everyday goods in the stores. Right now in the windows of stores on Avenue central there are ice chest selling for $30 that you can buy in the US for half that price. Same exact product. If this goes into effect there should be a dramatic price reduction in goods like this. There are many goods produced in Costa Rica that would fall in the category of light manufacturing. There will be an increase demand in the US for those products simply because they are cheaper alternatives that will become even cheaper.



I have a small amount of inside information on this and my response would be it's already started. A very well known company recently bought a big chunk of Costa Rica's retail industry. I would think that once it was obvious there was going to be opportunities many companies started sending people so that they would already be on the ground and ready to go.



Pay for play is a remarkably stable industry in Costa Rica. Any increase in demand is usually quickly answered with an increase in supply. I don't see anything happening to change that. I have recently made notes on my economic model for this industry that would indicate an increasing demand for higher end products. Hotel M would be an example. This is most likely due to an increase in business travel.



Increase in demand in this market as stated before is usually answered with an increase in supply. One factor that could be a multiplier is that if a significant portion of that increased demand is for higher end product there should be a noticeable increase in the quality of the product being offered. Personally for the non-cheapskates like me that's a good thing.



One of the factors that keeps this industry supply stable even as opportunities in Costa Rica for improved jobs increases is the fact that Costa Rica has a well educated population the vast majority of which are well under employed. As new business opportunities open those positions are being filled by people who are moving from menial jobs. Therefore you only have menial jobs becoming available. Those jobs are not attracted to girls who can make $100 a night at the Del Rey. As long as that fact remains in place the upper end price that can be asked is limited.

Lee

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PS: DO NOT SEND MONEY!

There's one thing I left out of my earlier post. As long as the birth rate remains sky-high here, there will always be an oversupply of 'labor' and an undersupply of jobs. It takes a true believer to think that a trade agreement is going to create so many jobs that Costa Rica will be the next Singapore. Did NAFTA end Mexico's problems? Take a walk through the poor areas of Desamparados, and look at all the K*ds walking around. Three years from now you may very well see that same cute 16 year old working at the Del Rey.

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"The only normal people are those you don't know very well." Joe Ancis

An unskilled female worker in Costa Rica can get a job in a tienda for $100 for a 48 hour week. Typical pay for other unskilled jobs in Costa Rica is $100 a week. If CAFTA is adopted, it will certainly not make earthshaking changes in the Costa Rican economy. It may increase the wage of the average unskilled worker, but certainly the change would not be dramatic. Would an increase in the average wage from $100 a week to $125 a week decrease the incentive of someone so inclined to make several hundred dollars a week for a few hours of work? You know the answer.

The "FT" in CAFTA stands for "Free Trade". This is a misnomer.

CAFTA is an agreement which has thousands of rules and tens of thousands of words. A real free trade agreement could be written on one page. It would simply say that all countries could import and export any goods, and provide any services, that they desire, and there would be no import fees, export fees, or taxes of any kind on these goods and services.

Any economist worth his salt knows that this type of agreement would make all of these countries richer! Since that is the case, then why is there such a battle to prevent CAFTA from being adopted in Costa Rica? That is a different issue altogether to be discussed in another post.