As we once again look forward to my favorite handicapping sport on the planet, I can’t help but be reminded of us winning last year with Barbaro then having tragedy fall on that animal & having Bernardini go on and win all of his races up to the Breeders Cup Classic. I simply love the ponies and knowing some horse trainers, owners, jockeys, & exercise riders, gives me the ability to see some of inner workings sometimes of what goes on behind the scene. That certainly does not make me any more the wiser than anyone else out there, but you would be surprised at all that goes into this.
With that said in taking a look at this years Kentucky I am immediately inclined to give you a horse not only am I familiar with, but I know the owner, and family of this 3 year old and my heart wants him to win badly “Nobiz like Showbizâ€, just so I can see my friends in the winners circle tomorrow. I originally was going to go to the derby with them and wear a suit, and look all polished; of course I don’t know how the Costa Rica Ticas.com hat would have played on NBC with about 150 million people watching.
So without my heart getting in the way lets take a look at the horses that can win, see if we can come up with a betting strategy that makes sense for this one narrowing it down later.
This will be in no particular order with selections at the end. Note: I have compiled data using at least 7 different sources so Yes I did write all this up, but it was compiled from a variety of online information, publications etc. My selections are based on much of this along with DRF racing forms, and a software program I use to handicap horses. So here we go!
The #’s next to their name represent post positions & Odds are Morning line odds.
12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ C. Velasquez Tagg 8-1
Positives:
He has won 4 of 6 races and has been one of the most consistent horses on the Triple Crown Trail this winter. He has faced top-notch competition, including two Grade I races, and never has been worse than third. Blinkers and ear plugs were added to his equipment last time out and he responded with a game performance to win the Wood. His trainer won the Derby with Funny Cide. Nobiz has won two of three starts at a mile and one-eighth.
Negatives:
Horses who need blinkers and ear plugs for their best usually find tough sledding at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. Although a consistent performer, he has not developed much this winter. He has never had a Beyer Speed Figure over 98. Scat Daddy holds a 2-1 advantage over him in head-to-head meetings. He has never raced at Churchill Downs. He had shown a tendency to lose concentration in the stretch before blinkers and ear plugs were added. He was pretty keen to go on early in the Wood and that style of running may not play well to a hot Derby pace.
Analysis:
He’s a tough horse and he has been solid, but unspectacular this season and it will take a spectacular effort to win this race. Will he step up and improve in the Derby? I don’t know but my heart sure wants him to win. I just have an inkling he will be just short, if I am wrong, no problem, but my guess is he is top 4 finisher.
2. CURLIN Albarado Asmussen 7/2
Positives:
Undefeated after three magnificent starts, he is the current darling of the racing world. He won the Arkansas Derby like a good horse—sat comfortably behind a lone pacesetter, took control at will and drew off in good time. He has the ability to relax just off the lead and then kick. He has run Beyer speed figures over 100 in two of three starts. He has already won at a mile and one-eighth and the manner in which he did it suggests a mile and a quarter will be no problem. He is trained by one of the top conditioners in the country and is ridden by a veteran jockey. He was the 7/2 favorite in the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Future Wager and is the 7/2 morning line choice in here. He worked very well in his final prep for the Derby, so his stock is still rising.
Negatives:
He is bucking two very strong trends: 1. Since 1882, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without first racing as a 2-year-old. 2. Since 1915, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with fewer than four lifetime starts. There’s a reason those trends have held up over the years: It’s very difficult for a horse to race only three times and then go a mile and one-quarter against 20 top competitors. He didn’t get any breaks in the post position draw either. He probably will experience racing in traffic for the first time in his career.
Analysis:
If Curlin can win the Kentucky Derby off three prep races from the two-hole in a crowded, contentious field, more power to him. From this corner it appears he’s got a steep a hill to climb If he takes the Derby feel free to bow down before him because he will have stamped himself as one of the most talented horses to come along in ages. In my opinion he has been the most impressive horse on film, (Note you can watch every prep race of every horse run this year on
www.kentuckyderby.com/2007, yes I have nothing better to do than watch every dam 3 year old pre race over and over.) but to many trends to fight here.
7. STREET SENSE Borel Nafzger 4-1
Positives:
He is the 2-year-old Champ and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs, no less. He has won 3 of 7 starts and has never been worse than third. He improved dramatically to win the Juvenile in November and has had two prep races to get ready for the Derby. He has posted the highest Beyer figure in the field—108 in the Juvenile—and he has a 102 Beyer to his credit. He has earned over $1.5 million. His last race was in the ‘funky’ Blue Grass, which he lost by a nose to Dominican. Even though the race shape did not suit his off-the-pace style, he was still right there at the finish despite drifting in a bit through the lane. He posted a great work at Churchill Downs the week before the Derby and followed that up with a nice maintenance breeze.
Negatives:
He enters the Derby off a nose defeat in the Blue Grass. In that race he spent some time ducking around in the stretch. That’s not the best behavior for a horse heading toward Churchill Downs and a crowd of 150,000 people. His closing style may be compromised in the large Derby field. He’ll have to get lucky to find a way through the pile.
Analysis:
In boxing you have to knock out the champ to wear the crown. It’s the same thing here. Street Sense doesn’t appear to be ready to abdicate the crown. He seems in good shape, loves Churchill Downs and is trained by a Derby-winning conditioner. From this chair, the Kentucky Derby winner has to go through Street Sense, but is he my choice we shall see. Never wining a Derby in 23 years as a 2 year old champion is another tough hill to climb. Throw out the poly track race in the blue grass & you would have a prohibitive favorite here. Tough to go against has to be considered in the top 2.
8. HARD SPUN Pino Jones 15-1
Positives:
He has won 5 of 6 races, his only defeat coming over a track (Oaklawn) his connections say he didn’t like. He has a great cruising speed and figures to be just off the early Derby pace before unleashing his best kick. He is bred to handle the distance and hasn’t shown any inclination to fade in the latter stages of his races. He has been favored in every start except for his last, which he won while earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Because of the deep competition in the Derby he will be a big price in the race.
Negatives:
He has not faced top competition. He will go into the Derby without having raced since March 24 and some wonder if that might be too long a layoff. His connections passed on competing in the Blue Grass, which originally was on his schedule. He worked in :57 3/5 for this race and that may have been too fast. It’s definitely not the type of work you want to see before the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis:
This horse was my value, sleeper, lock for this race until he worked :57 3/5 at Churchill Downs on Monday of Derby Week. That type of work can decimate a horse going into the most challenging race of his life. It can also make him too keen to go fast early and that’s not usually a good thing when going a mile and one-quarter for the first time. Because we won’t know exactly how the work affects him, but it’s hard to imagine that work being a good thing for him. This really was my top selection till that work on Monday as with the most seasoning and the ability to accelerate down the stretch, I thought we had a great price sleeper here. FIRE THE EXERCISE RIDER!
14. SCAT DADDY Prado Pletcher 10-1
Positives:
He has won 5 of 8 starts against top-notch competition, including four Grade I races and two wins at that level. He has a pressing style of running which means he won’t have to negotiate through traffic to make his run at the pacesetters. He is ridden by one of the top jocks in the game Edgar Prado and is trained by the nation’s leading trainer Todd Pletcher. Prado won the Derby last year aboard Barbaro. His racing schedule this winter was not interrupted at any point and he won both of his races at one mile and one-eighth-- the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby.
Negatives:
As honest and as accomplished as this multiple Grade I winner is he has never earned a Beyer figure over 98. He has been beaten by Nobiz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, Circular Quay and Great Hunter—all running in this race---among others. Jockey John Velasquez, Pletcher’s main rider and the jockey for Scat Daddy in seven of his eight lifetime starts, is aboard Circular Quay for the Derby. Scat Daddy trained in bar shoes at Keeneland on Tuesday, but his trainer says he has trained in them for nearly a year.
Analysis:
It’s hard to ignore this one. He’s done about every thing he needs to do to get ready for this. Count him in the mix, though his previous effort at Churchill in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was not good. On paper on my handicapping program he can’t lose, as he is the most consistent of all the horses, but he has been training in bar shoes which spell foot problem and has me wondering now.
17. STORMELLO Desormeaux Currin 30-1
Positives:
He has a world of speed and should find himself on or near the lead in the Derby. He has Grade I and Grade II wins to his credit already and has won 3of 9 lifetime starts. He has faced top competition this season.
Negatives:
He has been mismanaged this winter while racking up frequent flier miles from coast-to-coast trips in March. He runs hard, but doesn’t seem to want to go a mile and one-quarter at Derby speed. He is a fighter, but won’t be clear for long in the Derby. Too many pace-pressing types are signed up this year to permit Stormello to steal such a lucrative prize without a big fight.
Analysis:
He’ll be around for a while. Expect jockey Kent Desormeaux to take things as easy as possible early. If the rest of the field leaves him alone…nah, that can’t happen, but if it does, he could hang on for a piece of the exotics. Scary thought don’t leave him on the lead alone he might not get caught. With little other speed, be wary of slow fractions in this one.
Based on 10 key factors, focus on those horses with zero strikes or one strike. I automatically toss out any horse with three strikes or more in terms of winning the Derby, though they still can be part of the superfecta.
Here are 10 key Derby factors:
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses that have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk and Sunny’s Halo have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Forty-two of the last 44 Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to go. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam, Carry Back, Cannonade, Gato Del Sol, Unbridled and Sea Hero, with Canonero II unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Ferdinand and Silver Charm, with Canonero II unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Giacomo.)
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Barbaro in 2006 have been the only exceptions. They each had made five starts before the Derby.)
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in any of his or her races at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers at 3 before winning the Derby. Strike the Gold did have blinkers removed in his second start at 3.)
8. RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old.)
9. NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide is the only gelding to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
10. THE SUFFICIENT EXPERIENCE AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has made at least three starts at 3 before the Derby.) (Exceptions: Of the last 52 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 51 have failed. The only exception since Jet Pilot in 1947 was Sunny’s Halo in 1983.)
Here is a look at this year’s Kentucky Derby candidates as of this writing (prior to the draw for post positions) and their number of strikes:
NO STRIKES (Excellent chance to win)
Cowtown Cat
Scat Daddy
ONE STRIKE (Good chance to win)
Bwana Bull (a strike in category 5)
Hard Spun (a strike in category 4)
Nobiz Like Shobiz (a strike in category 7)
Street Sense (a strike in category 10)
TWO STRIKES (A win is possible)
Any Given Saturday (strikes in categories 2 and 4)
Curlin (strikes in categories 6 and
Circular Quay (strikes in categories 5 and 10)
Dominican (strikes in categories 9 and 10)
Liquidity (strikes in categories 2 and 4)
Sedgefield (strikes in categories 2 and 4)
Stormello (strikes in categories 4 and 10)
Storm in May (strikes in categories 2 and 4)
Zanjero (strikes in categories 2 and 4)
THREE STRIKES (A win is very unlikely)
Great Hunter (strikes in categories 4, 5 and 10)
Sam P. (strikes in categories 2, 3 and 7)
Teuflesberg (strikes in categories 2, 4 and 5)
Tiago (strikes in categories 3, 4 and 6)
FOUR STRIKES (A win is nearly impossible)
Imawildandcrazyguy (strikes in categories 2, 3, 5 and 9)
So there you have it 6 Horses with a chance to win in my not so humble opinion though to be honest I can make a case for about 6 others as well, and not feel I’m reaching here. By far the toughest race I have looked at for some time. I can easily see 5 horses across the track running down stormello a cavalry charge to the wire. Past derbies produce the winner 95% of the time that are within a few lengths on the turn, with the exception of Giacomo coming from the clouds someone who likes to be up front or near the front will win. Who is battle tested to win here, 4 of my horses all are, Curlin being the lone exception but also being the horse with the most upside. Watch for Curlin in the Preakness, smaller field more seasoning might be the best of all of them over the summer but for now lets narrow it further. Stormello either runs on or runs off, so we leave him & Curlin in the exotics, but not for the top spot.
Nobiz the in my heart horse, simply leads me to believe he is simply slightly overmatched.
Now we are down to 3.
Street sense the obvious second choice might be the one to beat here, but don’t count out Scat Daddy though the shoes trouble me. Pucking work on hard spun ruined this spot for me as he was my choice. Simply think he will not fire, as the tank is empty. So here is our betting choice.
1. Street Sense
2. Scat Daddy
3. Nobiz Like Showbiz
4. Curlin
5. Hard Spun
6. Stormello
Now with that said this order can be moved around a bit but for betting purposes I’m doing this.
Straight W/P/S
Street Sense (7)
Exacta Box
Street Sense (7) WITH 2-8-12-14-17
Tri Key
Street Sense (7) with 2-8-12-14-17
2-8-12-14-17 with Street sense (7) with 2-8-12-14-17
Superfecta Key
Street Sense (7) WITH 2-8-12-14-17
2-8-12-14-17 with Street Sense (7) with 2-8-12-14-17 with 2-8-12-14-17
In simpler terms We need our horse Street Sense (7) To run 1st or 2nd with any of our 2,3,4,5,6 choices finishing 2nd 3rd or 4th. If by some miracle that happens we would win every bet placed.
Happy wagering and don’t forget bet with your head not over it!
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Had him across the board; did a 3 horse exacta box; and also your tri-key. Nice payout. I owe you. Wile Coyote
