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Kentucky derby Selections 2015


In all my years of horse handicapping have I ever seen such a deep Kentucky derby field yet at the same time a clear cut difference between the top 3 horses and the rest of the field. I can go down each one and say well this one did this and this one did that, or if this horse has a big day and everything goes right etc. Unfortunately that is not the case. Talent the Jockey and racing lock will be the difference on derby day. If the best horse in the field get collapsed on by two horses on the break it’s over. Never have 3 year olds run with 20 horses. Never have the run with adversity normally up or on the lead and now having to be kicked bumped have dirt kicked in their face. Never have they had to run a race that is different than they are used to. Experience will play a part but anything that resembles a clean trip and talent should win out. With that said I find this race down to 5 horses.

American Pharaoh Of the horses in this year's field, American Pharaoh is the odds-on favorite. The three-year-old colt is known for his graceful running style, good endurance and ability to close out races. He's won his last four starts, most recently putting on a sparkling performance in the Arkansas Derby, defeating Kentucky Derby contender Far Right by eight lengths. Victor Espinoza, who led California Chrome to victory a year ago, will jockey the Bob Baffert-trained Pharaoh. Espinoza is a highly successful veteran and an intelligent navigator of the track at Churchill Downs. This will be an extremely difficult duo to take down. Watching him he simply seems like grace & power. He came from just off the lead good on derby day in the Arkansas Derby. If they are to beat he that racing luck or an off day will do it otherwise favorite or not he gets my nod. Draw’s outside should have no trouble moving into position. If he fires he wins simple as that.

Dortmund. One of the largest horses in this year's field, Dortmund's long legs allows him to cover ground quickly while conserving energy to finish races. He won the Santa Anita Derby by 4 ¼ lengths earlier in the year and will look to continue his unbeaten streak at Churchill Downs. If you watch him down the stretch in the SAD, he led all the way and was never challenged. He will not get the luxury on derby day of cutting his own fractions and having it his own way on Derby day. Not sure what his response will be. I thought he was lugging out a bit first time I watched it but didn’t seem to be the case on the replay. If he can rate or handle all the boys who want the lead and still win god bless him, otherwise unbeaten or not I still like Pharaoh.
His draw is perfect so he should have no trouble finding where he needs to be. He may be better than his Daddy Big Brown and beating American Pharaoh would not be a great upset but he should be second.





The Best of the Rest:

Carpe Diem A Todd Pletcher-trained colt, he has been brilliant this year, winning both the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. He certainly has the tools to don the garland of roses this year; however, some bettors are hesitant to wager on him due to a second-place finish to Texas Red in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile back in November of 2014. Watching his races he seems just a big slower than the top 2 without the turn of foot I like. A brilliant horse that should get a piece at the end, but don’t think the roses will be around his neck. Unfortunately he drew inside which pretty much takes him out of my top 3. Just too much going on down there that will force him to use too much early leaving him empty late.


Firing Line: Won the Sunland Derby for fun, but has lost twice to Dortmund. Tough to turn the tables on the undefeated above and his time at the Sunland derby was ok if not against inferior horses. If he were to win it certainly would be a shocker to me might be nice to be part of your exotics.

International Star won the Louisiana Derby and was the leading point’s earner in the Road to the Kentucky Derby with 171. Horse keeps winning and has been battle tested which is great for the 1st Saturday in May. Does he have enough talent to run with the top 2 is the real question. My guess is no. Sired by Kentucky Derby winner, he gets no respect and did get a good draw. Like to have him in my exotics.

Mubtaahij Dubai Derby winner who some people have labeled the “Wise Guy Horse” well if this wise guy horse wins it will be without my money. Nobody comes from across the globe at 3 and runs well here. Off my ticket completely but that is just my opinion

Materiality: Florida Derby winner and traditionally Fla Derby winners do very well in the derby. Unfortunately the COURSE OF APOLLO is here. No horse in over a 100 plus years unraced at 2 years old wins the derby. Too much inexperience. Is he that good to overcome all that history also he drew down low. For a young untested horse that is the Kiss of death. If he wins here he truly is a Super Horse but I can’t see it.

My wise guy horse is FROSTED. Showed nothing in Florida than had throat surgery. Runs monster come from behind race in the Wood memorial albeit a slow time but did come from off the pace and if he improves off that with the surgery and his running style look out. If the pace is blistering and if you’re looking for a closer this just might be your long shot special. Look for him running hard at the end you never know.

So my Picks:

18. American Pharaoh (5-2)

8. Dortmund (3-1)
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2. Carpe Diem (8-1)

10. Firing Line (12-1)

12. International Star (12-1)

15. Frosted (15-1)

Betting Pharaoh to win…

With Exactas 18-8

Trifecta 18/8 / 18/8 With 2/10/12/15

Superfecta 18/8 18/8 With 2/10/12/15 With 2/10/12/15

Good Luck

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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"

Nice rundown
a horse scratched and I think they changed some post positions. Frosted was 15 then I saw 14.

My bets will be exacta box carpe diem/frosted
$1 TRI and super box
carpe diem
frosted
dortmund
firing line
American Pharoah

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