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| Preakness Preview & Selections: https://forum.costaricaticas.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=37700 |
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| Author: | CRT Handicapper [ Sat May 21, 2011 10:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Preakness Preview & Selections: |
Preakness Preview & Selections: Never have I had to endure a spring quite like this, with virtually every major prep going to an a who knows who long shot, only to be capped by yet another bomb, the 20-1 Animal Kingdom, waltzing off with the Kentucky Derby. Having two horses out of top 3 in the derby doesn't do much for you when the winner is someone that I could not have bet with play money. Normally You can go back to the form and long at a horse and go WOW how can I have missed him. Of course he could win and find 1/2 dozen reasons to go there. Not this turkey. Sure he looked good down the stretch, and won convincingly, but I like him to another Giacomo or a mind that bird who won the derby and won almost nothing or never won again. Can Animal Kingdom come back and win again this weekend, I'm sure he can but it won't be with my dollars on him. Consider this There are nine serious prep races in this country leading up to the Triple Crown. Not one favorite won. The average odds of the winners was higher than 14-1 and you wonder why we are all broke? Nothing has worked this year. All the old rules and formulas that have proved worth wild over the Triple Crown chase have been turned on their heads. Form, systems, speed figures, class, conditioning, experience over the track, workouts, number of races - running on grass, running on synthetic, prepping on the aforementioned all have gone out the window this year. It's enough to make a bettor stop and ask: What the phuck is going on? Historically, horseplayers could always look to the Preakness to get some sanity, if not get even, because favorites have owned it like no other big race on the calendar. Also if you go back the last 1983 in 27 years only 3 "new Shooters" have won the Preakness. A "new shooter" being a horse who didn't run in the Derby. If you take that a step further Of the "new Shooters" one was Rachel Alexandra a super filly who was spotted 5 lbs but she also ran in the Kentucky Oaks 2 weeks before as well. Bernardini won it when Barbaro broke down early so you don't know how that race would have turned out, so the only horse who has won in 27 years who didn't run in the derby is Red Bullet in 2000. To me that limits the field to the 5 Horses who have run the past weekend. I'm not saying the new buys can't run well and fill your exotics, but picking a winner if you go simply by this trend should limit you to Derby returnees. Now with that said with not one single past trend holding true it will probably be some horse who hasn't run in 3 months coming from nowhere but we will look at each on its merit regardless. In No particular order: Shackleford. This strapping colts who I stated in my derby report was the biggest 3 year old I saw this year at Gulfstream. He needs to run on the lead and had two dream trips in the Kentucky Derby and Florida derby. I think 1 1/8 is about as far as he can take them and the 1 3/16 leaves him a little short. Can't put him on top as he also will have Flashpoint pushing him as well as Dance City so no easy this time around but might figure once again in the exotics. Mucho Macho Man: For some unexplained reason he backed up at the 1/4 pole changed leads, came like a bat out of hell and ran 3rd just missing 2nd. Hard to say what happened he got shuffled back inside and he was inside the 3rd tier in the derby. Still think he was the best horse with a bad trip, but tends to fall off after a big effort. Might expect a bounce here, but his last work was great and was my derby selection. Will look hard at him. Dialed in. Numbers keep getting worse, dead closer on speed favoring track "Pimlico" and I hate his running style from a little colt. Only thing going for him is Derby favorites who lose tend to run big in Preakness for whatever reason. Still a mystery to me but I'm liking him less and less every time I see him. Midnight Interlude gets a jockey change, after he was crushed on the first turn and wanted no part of the race after that. young green colt who showed his inexperience with a big field. Also his 4th big race in 8 weeks, I don't think he gets there. Animal Kingdom: The horse had never raced on dirt till he lined up in the Derby. In 136 years, no horse had ever won the Derby in his first outing on dirt. But Animal Kingdom did. He tried to win the great classic with only four starts, which no horse had done since Exterminator in 1918. But he did it. Animal Kingdom had not raced in six weeks, a big no-no by Derby rules. No horse had done that in 55 years. But Animal Kingdom did it. With all that said can he conceivably show up and win again who knows, but why not, but as stated NOT WITH MY MONEY. NOT RUNNING AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN AND WOULD HAVE BEEN MY HORSE Nehro: In my opinion the best horse in his last two races but has 2nd idis. He keeps running second even though his numbers get better and better with each race. I've gone back and looked at the races and there is one reason this horse lost his last two. Cory Nakatani. His Arkansas Derby race was bad enough, but his ride in the Derby was downright criminal. A stone closer he asks the horse to go with 3 furlongs to the wire. Sure it was a slow pace and he was right to have him closer to the pace than he usually likes, but why the phuck on earth would he move at the 3/8 poll is a mystery to me. Choked, panic bad riding all comes to mind. He was the best horse should have won and if Cory doesn't blow it. Let's look at some other contenders and pretenders: Sway Away the horse who didn't get into the derby because of the ridiculous no Also Eligible's in the derby. Had an absolute horrible ride in the Arkansas Derby moving a 1furlong to early and flattening out as he was a little short. With the right trip, he is a major contender though need a better ride than that. Astrology: Ran a game second in the Jerome and the race was better than it appeared. I am going to stay with my Derby Selection Mucho Macho Man In exactas / Trifectas & Superfectas with #1 Astrology # 6 Sway Away #10 Dialed In #5 Shakelford ---------------------- Good Luck! |
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| Author: | Californicationdude [ Sat May 21, 2011 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness Preview & Selections: |
thank you for all your work and thoughtful posts. I enjoy reading them. |
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| Author: | Mike321 [ Sat May 21, 2011 3:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Preakness Preview & Selections: |
just to let everyone know pimlico is booking .10 supers not a pro handicapper but i went with 3,5,9,10,11 in a $1 tri box and a .10 super box good luck to all |
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