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Please note Many of the statistics I use in this short write up have been gathered from other racing sources and are not mine, but I do spend a lot of time on this race & hope we can come up with your winner this year.
Just got back from Kentucky where I saw my friends horse run second "Negligee" yesterday and everyone states why would you not stay for the Derby? Why because there will be 100K plus people there and I can see the race much better from Calder where I will be enjoying the event with Gman, Sunny Isles, Duardo & others as we have a table at the Turf Club for Derby Day. Live racing and a full card from Churchill what more can you ask.
I caught some early morning works while I was there in the slop did some talking around with everyone I know and this may be the best betting race I ever remember with the defection of Super horse Eskendereya.
UP until the defection of the likely winner and monster horse Eskendereya & unlike most connoisseurs of the racing game, I thought tomorrow's 136th Kentucky Derby was a two-horse race between Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy, with the rest of them gasping for air. Then I began looking at the program, past performances, trends and more importantly my handicapping computer program that generates not Beyer numbers but Pace numbers that factor in many other things. This changed my mind set quite a bit so here we go.
Everything has changed. Lucky has drawn the dreaded rail, the kiss of death in the modern Derby, No horse has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986, and no horse beginning from the rail has finished in the money since Risen Star was third in 1988. Is he a Super Horse. With all his recent troubles in traffic look out.
Add to that Sidney's Candy man has drawn the extreme outside 20 post position, seemingly reducing the greatest of all America's thoroughbred races to a rumble in the park as very few modern day derby's have had 20 horses so the numbers of winners are skewed. Big Brown won from #20 two years ago but he was a monster during that 4 week run.
Lookin at Lucky risks being smothered and slaughtered in the run to the clubhouse turn, while Sidney's Candy, with five break-neck speed horses inside of him, risks being floated six wide on the same turn, if not speared to the outside rail. Here are two terrific 3-year-old colts, bred, bought, nurtured and trained to the minute at great emotional and financial cost, led to the starting gate in peak form for the greatest assignment of their lives, only to be compromised, if not crushed, by the rotten luck of the draw.
Now, if the rains come, as forecast, the Derby may take another twist. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk are the only starters to have won on wet tracks. If the weathermen are right, the sun won’t shine bright on my old Kentucky home when they run for the roses tomorrow. With a forecast calling for thunderstorms all day, the 136th Kentucky Derby figures to be run in the slop.
"The wet track throws a monkey wrench into everything," said Ron Anderson, the agent for jockey Garrett Gomez, who rides 3-1 favorite Lookin At Lucky. "That’s going to eliminate a bunch of horses that haven’t trained very well here in the mud."
With that said here is my Rundown than betting strategies in the end.
DERBY ANALYSIS
The process begins…or rather continues, in earnest--not only the search for the winner of the 136th Kentucky Derby, but for who might follow him home to complete the exacta, tri or super. Because, really, isn’t that one of the reasons we play the game in the first place--to land on the correct combination of runners across the finish on the first Saturday in May?
Here we go:
#1 Lookin At Lucky
Despite all the cute ‘unlucky’ cracks we’ve heard the last few weeks surrounding this horse, there’s one aspect we can’t discount: he can run. It’s difficult to overlook his fine 2-year-old record and the way he ran down Nobel’s Promise in the Rebel. Forget his troubled SA Derby, except for the part where ‘Lucky gathered himself, dug in and resumed his charge to finish third behind Sidney’s Candy. Plus, he worked sensationally at Churchill Downs Wednesday! And then he draws the rail As good as he is he will not overcome this draw and we will use him in our Box but not as our winner.
Noble’s Promise #2
Lookin At Lucky has this guy’s number. He’s beaten him the last three times they’ve met. It’s really difficult to fault this one’s running line, except to say he gets a little light in the late going. A mile and one-quarter doesn’t figure to help his cause. Also, he came out of the Arkansas Derby with cuts and scrapes, which was no big deal, but he also had some kind of respiratory problem, too. That is a big deal, especially coming this close to the Derby. His connections aren’t even sure they were going to run him and that’s not a good place to be PASS!
Sidney’s Candy #20
This one’s bandwagon is getting crowded. Why not? There’s plenty to like. He got speed, but doesn’t appear to be speed-crazy. He puts in final quarter-mile times that suggest distance won’t be an issue. He worked well over the Churchill surface, too. After running exclusively on artificial tracks, he’ll make his first start over a natural dirt surface in the Derby, a move that already has proven to be a real boost to the performances of other horses. Bottom line…he belongs on the ticket, but can't from the #20 hole with all the other early speed pressing give him the top spot. I don't personally like the never run on dirt angle so I'll use him in the box but not on top
Line of David
There was little to suggest that Line of David would deliver such an outstanding performance in the Arkansas Derby (improving and first-time artificial to dirt angle). But that’s the way the game goes sometimes. He’s undefeated since adding blinkers—three in a row, two on turf and one on the main—and they’ve all been wire-to-wire thefts. Don’t think he’ll see the lead in the Derby and if he does, he’ll be going too fast to hang around but his pace #'s suggest he belongs and will be in our box.
Mission Impazible.
Mission Impazible just hasn’t shown the kind of talent it will take to crack this year’s top four in the Derby. Not for me Pass.
Ice Box
This horse is a nose away from not even being in the Kentucky Derby. If he doesn’t hang a lip on Pleasant Prince at the conclusion of the Florida Derby, Ice Box, Nick Zito and Bob LaPenta are watching the Derby on television. But, now he’s in. I think they’re both wasting their time. Ice Box’s deep closing style seems like it should fit well in this speed-laden Derby. However, he’ll need to get very lucky to avoid traffic and it doesn’t really seem like he’s that good to begin with. After all, he was 20-1 in Gulfstream’s main event and his #'s don't suggest he can make it to the top 6 here. Pass
Stately Victor
Upset winner of the Blue Grass is proof that every dog has his day. Don’t look for that 40-1 upset-victory form to translate to Churchill Downs on Derby day. Some handicappers like him because of his closing style, but we ask, ‘Where was that roaring closing-style before the Blue Grass? not to mention doing nothing on dirt in the past (PASS)
Conveyance
Here’s another speedball with a pair of Grade 3 stakes notched on his belt. He finished second to Endorsement in the Sunland Derby and trainer Bob Baffert has suggested that he’ll let this one roll away from the gate in the Derby. Endorsement will add some heat to the early proceedings, but it should be a challenge for him to finish the race with anything left. He blistered around the Churchill oval to signal his readiness to go for the Derby lead. He also tends to run big races 2nd off his best last which this is. He had a great race Feb 20 at Oaklawn then went west and bounced and still ran well. If he runs back to Feb 20 like he has in the past he simply MIGHT GET AWAY. I know speedballers rarely hang on in the derby but I like Baffert and I like this horse. He is my top selection!
American Lion
A poor start in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, a set of blinkers added in the San Felipe and a rock and roll, wire-to-wire win in the Illinois Derby bring this one to Kentucky up against it. He can’t win on the lead and doesn’t seem to take kindly to rating. That combination leaves him in no-man’s land. Pass for me.
Dublin
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to win the Kentucky Derby. He also knows that you need the right horse to get the job done. We doubt Dublin’s got the chops to win the race. However, we do think he’s a consistent runner with the kind of style that will play well in this race. He was a Grade I winner at two, and placed in all three graded stakes at three. He just missed to Conveyance in the Southwest, was moved prematurely in the Rebel to lose to Lookin At Lucky by three lengths, and then went evenly at the finish behind Line of David and Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby. Oaklawn has been a veritable Derby training ground for the last few years and Dublin looks like a good bet to finish up the track Pass.
Super Saver
Another of the Todd Squad, Super Saver is an interesting exotics possibility. He’s been developing steadily and has never been worse than fourth in six starts, including four graded stakes races. It’s true that he had dead-aim on Line of David in the Arkansas Derby and couldn’t catch him, but he didn’t give any quarter either. That’s a perfect tune-up for a horse with only two races since November. Look for him to hit the ticket at a big price. He’ll be overlooked in the wagering and his chances will be discounted because he has done most of his running on the front end. However, he did sit behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby and he’s got room to improve off of that race. Plus, he’s one for one at Churchill, I have him in my box.
Discreetly Mine
Count him in the Todd Squad lineup. He’s only raced three times this year and is moving in the right direction that is if you count backwards. Although he doesn’t seem quite as talented as Super Saver. His fade in the Louisiana Derby was disappointing and he hasn’t raced since March 27. He’s up the track Pass.
Dean’s Kitten
He has had 11 races so far and seems to be improving. He won the Lane’s End at Keeneland in his last start. He’s got a bit of a ‘sleeper’ look to him because he’s only won three times and never been on a ‘fast’ dirt surface. If he improves the way other horses have in their first dirt races, he could pick up some pieces late in the Derby at huge odds. He finished sixth in the BC Juvy Turf, beaten less than three lengths, after beginning from the dreaded 12-hole. Don’t leave this one off your tickets if you want to rip them up. Dirt is not his specialty and should have stayed home.
Awesome Act
Here’s a horse who was disappointing in the Wood behind Eskendereya, but looked strong in winning the Gotham over the inner dirt. Before that he was fourth, beaten less than two lengths in the BC Juvenile Turf. ‘Act did have trouble at the start in the Wood, so maybe that’s an excuse. It’s hard to imagine him turning the tables on anyone here, Distance is an issue no chance.
Paddy O’Prado
We thought he’d perform better in the Blue Grass and were disappointed when Stately Victor roared past him down the lane. The Derby might be his first start on a ‘fast’ natural-dirt surface and that could help him move forward. However, it all feels a bit rushed because this one recently broke his maiden by winning the Palm Beach at Gulfstream March 6. Probably out of the mix. He is outclassed pass.
Homeboykris
He hasn’t raced since the Feb. 27 and that’s reason enough to pass on this one but he actually had a troubled trip in the Holy bull, Never underestimate Richard the Needle Dutrow and I need a bomb in my box so he is it!
Jackson Bend
He’ll need a little luck to get into the Derby, but he’s been a steady horse with five wins and four seconds from nine starts. As a 2-year-old he reeled off a string of five consecutive wins in Calder stakes races--four of which were restricted. He also was second in the Holy Bull off a layoff and twice runner-up to Eskendereya, although beaten by a mile both times. He’s a tough customer and is worth keeping around for consideration on the ticket but distance seems to be an issue and I can't use him here. PASS
Backtalk
He took a step backward in the Hawthorne Derby, but it wasn’t completely his fault. He worked in 1:09 and change before the Hawthorne race and that might have been just enough to leave him flat. He’s only had two starts since October, so he’s up against it. Nothing to write home about PASS
If I skipped a review its because I am not even wasting my time on the horse.
With that said its
#12 Conveyance as my Selection!
5 Horses underneath are.
#1 Looking at Lucy
# 20 Sydney's Candy
# 4 Super Savor
#5 Line of David
#19 Homeboykris
Betting Strategies you can obviously bet your own way here.
Win Place Show $20.00 = $60.00 #12
$1.00 6 Horse Exacta Box = $30.00 1-4-5-12-19-20
$1.00 6 Horse Trifecta Box = $120.00 1-4-5-12-19-20
.10 6 Horse Superfecta Box = $36.00 (You get 10% of the Superfecta pay Off 1-4-5-12-19-20)
Total Bet $246.00
You can obviously change things around if you don't want to box like Wheel the #12 up and down 1st and 2nd etc but investing $246.00 with the payoffs that would come on the last dozen derby's will pay off thousands if you catch the correct combination.
Good Luck to all!
_________________ 
"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"
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