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| Super Bowl Selections Released! https://forum.costaricaticas.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=32559 |
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| Author: | CRT Handicapper [ Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Super Bowl Selections Released! |
Super Bowl betting has been very good to us up until last year's debacle as we had hit 5 consecutive Games & Totals. As we approach this year's selection I have had the worst NFL season in my history hitting at about 40% sides and totals. Bottom line, I had no clue during the regular season but have not lost only 1 playoff game as I have been more selective down the stretch. Some Trends to consider courtesy of various compiled betting sites and my write up and selections are below. Super Bowl betting has seen the NFC win 22 of the Super Bowls while the AFC has won 21. Looking to more recent history we find t hat the AFC is 5-1 straight up in the last six Super Bowls and they have won nine of the last twelve. That doesn’t always mean they cover the Super Bowl odds though. Last year Pittsburgh beat Arizona but did not cover the Super Bowl betting line. The NFC is actually 5-2 against the Super Bowl betting point spread the last seven years. If you go back through Super Bowl history you will find that favorites and underdogs are almost split right down the middle. It depends upon what closing line you used but overall there is not much of an advantage either way. The last two years in Super Bowl betting, the underdog has covered the spread as Arizona lost but covered last year against Pittsburgh while the Giants won outright as huge underdogs two years ago against New England. If you are looking at the total in the Super Bowl you probably are considering taking it over. That might not be a bad idea since 16 of the last 28 Super Bowls have gone over the total including last year. What should be remembered though is that last year broke a four-game under streak in Super Bowl betting. The total on this year’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints is a very high one at 56.5. Both teams have great offenses so a lot of points are expected. Sometimes in Super Bowl betting the point spread will come into play and the game can land on the number. With the Colts favored by about 5 points it is unlikely that will be the case this season. Super Bowl betting has been getting more competitive in recent years. In eight of the last ten Super Bowls, the Super Bowl odds have been a touchdown or less. Even when it was a high number two years ago, the underdog Giants not only covered the Super Bowl odds, they won the game outright. Now with all that said I had leaned for almost the entire two weeks on the fact that The Colts offense was unstoppable, Peyton Manning was too good, and the Saints defense is downright awful. If you go by the last game only, Minnesota actually outplayed New Orleans and should be the NFC team representing. On the flip side of that is this game is outdoors a negative for both teams on grass as well as the fact Dwight Freeney is not expected to play and if he does he will be little to no factor which is a major factor on the defensive side of the ball of the colts. I also believe that the Saints are much more balanced with a running attack something the Colts don't have and all things considered I found it being one of two ways. A Colts Blowout or a Saints cover. I don't find anything in between simply stated either very competitive or over at halftime. I also have a soft spot for friends form the City of New Orleans and all that they have endured, making selecting and rooting for the Colts a very difficult thing, but both teams are class acts and whoever wins will be deserving. "Smart Money" is what I follow and the "Smart" money is on the Saints. I like that and I do believe the Freeney factor will be bigger than what people think. I think playing on Grass and the fact for New Orleans to win they need to control the clock & run the ball. The line and the total are right where I would have made them though I thought Indy might be closer to 6 -6.5 than the current 5 they are right now. It is as tough a game as I remember to select but I am going to go with New Orleans & the Under with a final score prediction of 27-24 But I don't know who will win! Good Luck everyone and bet with your head not over it.! |
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| Author: | Mucho Gusto [ Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Selections Released! |
CRT Handicapper wrote: ...I am going to go with New Orleans & the Under with a final score prediction of 27-24 But I don't know who will win! That's funny! Less than 45 minutes ago, I posted my prediction (in a different thread) as 27-24 with Saints on top. I hope you're right! 
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| Author: | Admin 1 [ Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Bowl Selections Released! |
Just wanted to Congratulate our CRT handicapper for another Super Bowl Side & Total and aside from last year has been beyond good in the big game! He also has downsized his game selection for 2010 and simplified his wagering strategy and is doing very well this year. I think 2009 was simply and off year as he consistently provides solid selections day in day out - week in week out and year in and year out. Anyway Sammy my Boy Gratzi! |
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