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2008 Super Bowl Selections Now available!
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Author:  CRT Handicapper [ Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:44 am ]
Post subject:  2008 Super Bowl Selections Now available!
Well this is it, the last NFL game of the season! A lot of you have been asking about the Super Bowl pick so it is now available on the home page of the VIP Section when you logon off the home page. Please do not post it here that defeats the purpose of posting it in the VIP Section.

While many of you think that the Giants do not have a chance at staying close, remember that the Giants have covered 5 games in a row and New England is just 2-8 against the spread in its last ten games including 5 non-covers in a row. Also of interesting note is that the game is being played on a grass field. The Giants have played two of their last three games on grass. New England’s last (and only) grass game this year was October 21st. Also it is interesting to note that the Patriots have been home in cozy New England for an entire month and now they have to get away from their acclimated environment and go on the road as favorites on grass. The Giants on the other hand have of course won 10 straight road games and played their last three games on the road as underdogs and won all three outright. They feel very comfortable on the road….on grass…as underdogs… Also keep in mind that the last time these two met on December 29th, while statistically it may not have been favorable to the Giants, the score was very close. Moreover, that game instilled in the Giants a belief that they could hang with, if not beat, the best in the league. Remember too that Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t’ even play in that game and the Giants were banged up. Now they have had additional time to heal. Additionally, it could be said that the Patriots have been waning a bit in the last few performances and that the Giants are rising and peaking at the most opportune time. No interceptions v. three interceptions in one game…. !

As many of you believe that the favorites have covered in the super bowl at a greater pace than not, some of the research found on the annals of the Internet suggest, all is not as it may seem…Things have changed in recent years and there has been a shift towards underdogs. Since 1996 (Super Bowl XXX), underdogs have gone 6-3-2 in the big game. With the current spread set at close to two touchdowns another blowout could be in the works but the underdog shift has occurred with the big favorites as well. Double-digit favorites went 4-0 against the spread from 1986 to 1995 but have not won since, going 0-3-1 in four instances since 1996. The last two double-digit favorites, the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI and the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII, both lost outright.

Given the surprise run of the Giants, it is interesting to examine how teams have done in the Super Bowl when they were not expected to be there. Teams that won outright as underdogs to advance to the Super Bowl have gone 10-6-1 against the spread in the big game since 1981. In the last four instances, those teams have covered in all four of the Super Bowls (New England in 2002, Carolina in 2003, Tampa Bay in 2004, and Pittsburgh in 2006). The last three teams that had to win twice in a row as an underdog to advance to the Super Bowl (like the Giants have had to do) are also 3-0 against the spread in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh in 2006 also had to win on the road three times to get to the Super Bowl but unlike the Giants, the Steelers were favored in the first playoff game that year at Cincinnati.

Twice in the last 10 years has the Super Bowl been a rematch of a regular season game. In both of those games the team that lost the regular season game ended up getting revenge and winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI after losing 24-17 in the 2001 regular season at home and the Rams beat the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV after losing at Tennessee 21-24 in the 1999 regular season. The Patriots defeated the Giants on the road 38-35 in the nationally televised Saturday night game in the final week of the regular season. That game occurred just over a month prior to the Super Bowl rematch and was one of the most memorable games of the regular season.

Obviously the Super Bowl is over analyzed. It is fun to dissect the game with an eye towards history, and judging by the recent trends listed above the Giants may have a better shot than most will give a chance not only to cover but to win outright as well.

With that said we have had great run with 4 straight sides & totals (4 parlays) so as with anything it is possible to take it in the chops so to speak. I certainly believe the selections are from statistical & trend data rather than my heart as you know I grew up in NJ my heart bleeds blue just like Admin.

All the best to you all at the SL for the big game, I’ll be in Arizona with Admin for the game! Remember Money won is twice as good as money earned!
Author:  Gringotim [ Sun Feb 03, 2008 4:22 am ]
Post subject: 
14 point spread? It should be 21!
Author:  Orange [ Sun Feb 03, 2008 11:14 am ]
Post subject: 
It's 12, not 14.
Author:  Orange [ Mon Feb 04, 2008 12:16 am ]
Post subject: 
Bet $430 on a +11.5/under 54 parlay to win $1430 (total).

Thanks CRT Handicapper and the Giants!
Author:  El Gringo [ Mon Feb 04, 2008 2:29 am ]
Post subject: 
Orange,

Great job. Next year I will send you my money and you can make my bet for me. I saw his pick but I just couldn't bet it. :x
Author:  Witling [ Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:18 am ]
Post subject: 
CRT Handicapper,
Excellent job once again.

For those of you who missed them, these were his picks on the Super Bowl:
Giants Plus 12 & Under 54 - 3 Units each!
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