We are back folks in perhaps the worst betting race of the Triple Crown that I have seen in some time. Why because in my opinion on 3 horses can win and with that said in a 7 horse field there is simply no value. Coming off the Derby W/P/S Exact & Trifecta winner the same for the Preakness, can we duplicate our handicapping efforts as I certainly am doing much better than many of the thousands of “experts across the land, but here goes.
Let’s give it a shot shall we! Once again, much of what is written has been compiled from various sources as I certainly have no time to do this amount of research, but I take the best from everywhere then post my thoughts.
Post Position: 1 Imawildandcrazyguy Trainer: William Kaplan Jockey: Mark Guidry
Plusses: Imawildandcrazyguy exceeded expectations when he fourth at 28-1 in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a mere half-length behind eventual Preakness winner Curlin and did so after racing 10 wide on the far turn. He'll probably like the Belmont distance, but based on my computer numbers he is short of hitting the board here.
Minuses: A winner of just two of 12 lifetime starts, with his only victories coming last year in maiden and allowance events at Calder. He stepped into tougher company this year and hasn't fared well. Trainer Bill Kaplan is only 2-for-34 this year that does not pose well for this colt.
Worth a wager? Not for me! Can't see him winning or even hitting the board even if I did use him in my exotics in the derby!
Post Position: 2 Tiago Trainer: John Shirreffs Jockey: Mike Smith
Plusses: Giacomo's brother, has Giacomo ever won anything but one Derby? After a fair effort in the Derby, he passed the Preakness and was pointed for this spot. He has been working regularly, including a stamina-building, one-mile work May 27. Sherriff’s and Mike Smith are a good team. With a win in the Santa Anita Derby, Tiago and Curlin are the only male starters in the race who have won a Grade 1. He looks like the type of horse who is sitting on a big race and will like the Belmont Stakes distance.
Minuses: He beat a weak field in the Santa Anita Derby and, though he was running on at the end, lost to six horses in the Derby. He'll come from way off the pace, which usually is the kiss of death in the Belmont. His best Beyer figure is a 100, which puts him well behind Curlin.
Worth a wager? If you just can't bring yourself to bet on one of the three favorites (Curlin, Hard Spun and Rags to Riches), then Tiago might just be the horse for you, but not for me!
Post Position: 3 Curlin Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Robby Albarado
Plusses: There's little doubt that Curlin is the best horse in the race and it's quite possible we haven't seen his very best yet. He was good in the Derby and very good in the Preakness, and now doesn't have to worry about his main rival, Street Sense. With the way he blew past Hard Spun in the Preakness, it's hard to imagine Curlin finishing behind him in the Belmont. With a 111 Beyer in the Preakness, he's the fastest horse in the race. This could be a superstar in the making.
Minuses: The main question with Curlin will he bounce? Horses are not machines and they can't run their best every time out. The only other question is the distance. He looks like he will handle it fine, but, with all these horses, none of whom have ever gone a mile and a half, you never know. Also Belmont AKA “BIG SANDY†for its deep slow sandy surface and give anyone fits.
Worth a wager? He'll probably be about 4-5, meaning he'll pay $3.60 or so for a $2 win bet should he win. There are a lot of people out there who never bet such low price horses. Absolutely no place & show value, but it certainly is nice to cash the ticket than rip it up.
Post Position: 4 C P West Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Edgar Prado
Plusses: The biggest thing this horse has going for him is his connections. Prado and Zito are among the best and they have already teamed to pull off a stunning Belmont upset. I used him 4th in the Preakness because he worked well AT BELMONT the week before. That was in my opinion his best effort.
Minuses: He may not be good enough or fast enough. His 102 Beyer figure in the Preakness was by far his best. Prior to that, his top number was a 92. He's only won once in his six-race career and that was a six-furlong maiden in his debut. This is a horse that could get better, but he doesn't look ready for this challenge.
Worth a wager? Only if you have to bet a long shot, otherwise pass.
Post Position: 5 Slew's Tizzy Trainer: Gregory Fox Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Plusses: Fox is one of the better unknown trainers in the game. A former veterinarian, he has won with 22 percent of his starters this year and clearly knows what he is doing. He is an improving colt that needs to test himself against this competition.
Minuses: He's never won over a fast dirt track, only on slop and one Polytrack. Not only has he never tried a mile and a half, he's never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth. There are no assurances that he can handle the distance. Though jockey Rafael Bejarano is no slouch, it can't help that he's losing Robby Albarado to Curlin. The one time Slew's Tizzy ran at Belmont, he was seventh, beaten by 16 ¾ lengths. And Hank Goldberg the other kiss of death likes him for second.
Worth a wager? Why not, if you like to throw money away, I’ll book your action – PASS!
Post Position: 6 Hard Spun Trainer: Larry Jones Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Plusses: He's made every dance and he's run well every time. Though Curlin beat him in the Preakness, don't forget that he finished 5 ¾ lengths in front of Curlin in the Kentucky Derby. Belmont winners always seem to be well placed early. No knock on Mario Pino, but the switch to the more accomplished Garrett Gomez has to be a plus. Hard Spun should have no problem with the distance on paper, but he keeps backing up so I think this is the one race to pass on this very good but not great colt.
Minuses: Not every horse can hold up to the Triple Crown grind. In his third race in five weeks, he could be due for a bad day. Though he ran well in both the Derby and Preakness, he didn't win either and might be a shade below the crop's two big guns, Street Sense and Curlin.
Worth a wager? The one horse that really goes backwards – PASS! Post
Position: 7 Rags to Riches Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez
Plusses: Rags to Riches is a terrific filly and clearly the leader of her division. After failing to break her maiden in her one start in 2006, she's ripped off four straight this year, including three straight Grade 1 wins. Pletcher has had a terrible time winning a Triple Crown race, so maybe he's due. Rags to Riches has the perfect pedigree to handle the Belmont distance. Winning with 34 percent of his starters at the current Belmont meet, Pletcher is on fire, he must have the injection juice going again. She carry’s 5 less pounds than the boys “121†and that equals 2 ½ lengths over a mile and ½ race. “LOOK OUTâ€!
Minuses: She's a filly and fillies just don't win this race. The last one to do it was Tanya in 1905. Since then, 10 have tried and lost. Forget about Pletcher being due. He's 0-for-28 in the Triple Crown races but is tearing up the meet at Belmont Jockey John Velazquez is another who hasn't won a Triple Crown race
Worth a wager? If you think she's the real deal and can beat the big boys in Curlin and Hard Spun, go for it. She's got a lot of class and ability and might just be good enough for SECOND that’s right second she can’t win!
So with this being a Horrible betting race this is what you do invest $50.00. Bet $25.00 to win on Curlin he should go off at even Money. Then bet the other $25.00 on a straight exacta Curlin / Rags to Riches. Exacta should about $15.00 times or about $187.50 want to pick up about $250 and change for a $50.00 wager go for it, otherwise watch the race & save your cash for a session at Zona Blue!
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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"
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