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Kentucky Derby Analysis:
Having had the opportunity this year to spend some time in South Florida with Admin & Some friends and also in Kentucky for a couple of the G1 prep races, I thought that I would be more capable of handling the handicapping on this race better than any other year. Now that I look at the field of 20 for the KD on Saturday, I can’t help but wonder what the heck I was thinking because truly I have never been more baffled by a derby field in my life.
If you don’t follow the horses or don’t even occasionally watch the big ones, than forget what I am about to write. With that said if this were the third race on a Thursday afternoon I would probably just pass and turn the page to the fourth race. That, of course, isn't possible. It is, after all, the one and only Kentucky Derby. Any horseplayer who doesn't make a bet on this race should be excommunicated from the corps
So lets get down to the nitty gritty. I have watched the top two favorites carefully, Brother Derek & Lawyer Ron and although Brother Derek may be the class of the field on paper, the derby is not about class it’s about running styles and a good trip. BD is a front runner that has never been behind. He likes the lead, and the derby is no place for a wire to wire horse if there is a lot of speed in the race this year sets up as the suicide speed dual of all time.
Everything about the race tells me that there is going to be a hellacious speed duel up front that will fry anybody who goes anywhere near the lead. That means that the pick should be a deep closer, a Giacomo type who will come from the clouds and swoop past exhausted horses in the stretch. The problem is that the deep closers in the field (Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Seaside Retreat and, maybe Storm Treasure) simply aren't very good or very fast horses. Every other horse in the race is a stone frontrunner or a stalker. And even stalkers will be in trouble if they run the first half in :45.60, entirely possible with this speed-crazed group. With that said I throw out Brother Derek, and place him 3rd tiring in the stretch. The horse on the lead Sharp Humor is dam good but he too will run a beaten 4th in my opinion.
So who can stalk and who can close for second that is the way we look at this race. As far as I’m concerned the horse that looks like ATLAS of the thoroughbreds is Barbaro. This horse was bred for grass but, his powerful hind quarters, fresh legs, 5 week layoff, perfect running style off the pace and the only horse who has stalked had to run someone down and finished him off (Sharp Humor Fla Derby), is Barbaro. He should get a good price as 3rd choice and he is my choice to win the big one this year.
Who can close big to pass the feisty by tiring Brother Derek & Sharp Humor? POINT DETERMINED.
In the Santa Anita Derby, he was 4 ½ lengths behind a fairly moderate early pace (:47.40, 1:11.20). With Brother Derek rolling along up front, he had little chance of catching him. He did about the only thing he could do he ran evenly and did pass a horse in the stretch. It was not at all a bad effort and it signaled that he is manageable enough to sit, at the very least, in mid-pack in this Derby. He is an improving horse who evidently has not yet reached his peak. If he gets the right kind of trip and he improves just a length or two off of his last start he can absolutely win this. That he is trained by Bob Baffert certainly doesn't hurt.
Well there you have it; I guess my selections are as good as anyone’s but that doesn’t mean anything….
I like Barbaro 1st Keyed with Point Determined, Sharp Humor & Brother Derek.
GOOD LUCK AND DOWN THE STRECTH THEY COME!
_________________ 
"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"
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