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Kentucky Derby 2008 Selections

Gentlemen:
The sport of kings and the most exciting 2 minutes of the year happens tomorrow as the 1st Saturday in May brings us one of the most competitive and best betting races in some time. The Kentucky Derby has always been one of my favorite times of year and this year as I report to you live from my hotel just outside of Keeneland, yes I know wrong track, but it is as close as I could get to Louisville on short notice.

I am here as a guest of an owner who unfortunately had his star horse come down with an injury and will not be running tomorrow, but this will be my first Two Days at Churchill Downs and exciting is an understatement.

Last year we did very well in both Derby & Preakness selections and hope to duplicate that with should be one heck of a race that is in my opinion anything BUT wide open. I will not get into the intricacies of each horse, but simply use some time proven methods that I have come to trust, and give you what in my opinion is a 1 horse race and everyone else chasing for second.

I have successfully used a computer based handicapping program at the ponies for many years and after tweaking, it then with today’s modern technology, being able to watch every single derby horses workouts, how they handle the track, compare work out times, etc, has allowed me to get a very good idea about what direction I wanted to go this year.

One issue that I can not get around is the fact that many of the so called favorites in this race have either only proven themselves on the “Polytrack” or synthetic type surfaces and have either never one on dirt or have performed poorly on dirt or in some cases NEVER RUN ON DIRT. This has made this a very difficult race to view as you certainly do not know who will take to the track and who will not and who will simply show up.

Let us also look at the other facts that in my opinion there are two big knocks on the favorite Big Brown. First off no horse in history has ever one making only their 4th start, and only 1 horse in almost 90 years has ever won from post 20. If this horse was inside or had a better draw he certainly would be a huge favorite, but these to glaring problems, will make him a lukewarm favorite at best. As far as I can see though those two knocks are the only things that go against this horse.

Looking at my computer Numbers, this is the only horse in the field that has not had a bounce factor. He duplicated his previous race by running huge in the Florida Derby, a race I attended with Gamlingman as I always do. Like Barbaro before he will attempt to win off the 5 week layoff, and we all know how that turned out!!!! He is on paper 15 lengths better than any horse in the field. Now spotting 10 lengths to the 1st turn from post 20 the fact that he has to use some early speed to gain the lead and the fact none of these horses have ever gone 11/4 mile, makes this the great equalizer. So If Big Brown is at his best he still will only be 1-2 lengths better than the field.

Where of course does that leave us? Do you make a value play or say Brown can’t win? Personally even with all the knocks against him, I can not see him any worse than 2nd as this is also the weakest derby fields in history. So I have to use Big Brown 1st and 2nd in my keys, and then look for value to either beat him or fall in behind him to make up a big exacta, Trifecta & superfecta which is going to be HUGE no matter how you look at it with the size of the field and betting pools.

So who will be our 4 horses to key him with that is the question.

#12 Smooth Air 7 for 7 in the Money, with Bennie Stutt’s first derby horse after a lifetime in the game. Ran a great Florida Derby clearly second best to Big Brown, look for a piece of the pie here.

#16 Dennis of Cork last on the earnings list but 3 wins out of 4 tries improving but came up empty his last race. No explanation for it but like what I saw at Oaklawn in February

#17 Cowboy Cal 5 out of 6 in the Money throw out his last race on Poly and another horse I watched all year in Florida. Will be a big price as only performed on Turf, but I think he could get a share here.

#18 Recapture the Glory. Everyone discounts this horse 5 out of 6 in the money and you simply can not discount his incredible win in the Illinois Derby. If he is even close to that form he has a shot as an upset.

I know I’m way out here with all these outside posts and going against tradition, but hey ANYONE can win this, I simply go with my gut and this is what comes up.

Off to the Kentucky Oaks now and Hope to see you all at the windows cashing your tickets tomorrow!

Betting Strategy Exotics $124.00 Investment

$5 Exacta Box #20 with 12,16,17,18 Total Wager $40.00
$1 Tri Key #20, with 12,16,17,18 Total Wager $12.00
$1 Tri Key 12,16,17,18 with #20 with 12,16,17,18 Total Wager $12.00
$1 Superfecta Key #20, with 12,16,17,18 Total Wager $30.00
$1 Superfecta Key 12,16,17,18 with #20 with 12,16,17,18 with 12,16,17,18 Total Wager $30.00

GOOD LUCK BET WITH YOUR HEAD NOT OVER IT!

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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"

Muchas gracias. These picks have allowed me to smile and forget that the Clam will be hanging out Sunday in Panama City with resident pulitzer prize nominee, and comfortably numb world traveller, Ron Medellin.

this might be a good ideal to go with his picks ...as he seems to show up on the big (game days )"superbowl" but as of late he has been as cold as the bartenders at zone blue when you tell them you are looking for some asian pu*sy...baseball and hoops just isnt his bag ...but i like his picks as well in the derby!!! still i would love to go head to head with him on daily picks in any sport !! we both start out with 1000.00 and track it day to day for 30 days ..max bet is 50 units ....we both put 500.00 winner take all !!!

It's 7am, I'm looking at Churchill Downs from my window, it's in the mid 60s we've had light rain during the night but it's clearing out. By race time it should be partly cloudy and warming slightly. The track dries quickly, it should be fast all day long.

Derby Time it's supposed to be in the low 70s with a very light breeze.

Go Baby Go

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Shamas O'Dognasty
Gourmet Catering & Septic Tank Cleaning

Derby Day has arrived.(all horse racing fans should go at least one time because it's a blast) Thanks for the tip and betting strategy. E-ponies likes Big Brown as well.Buena Suerte!

That's all very scientific,and the CRT handicapper certainly has the credentials to pick this race.HOWEVER,the Vegas Bob selection (totally unscientific and without ANY knowledge whatsoever) is number 13 (unlucky I know)is "Blackjck Bob" Since my name is Bob and I play a lot of blackjack,who else could I pick. So I wager $10,000 to win on this horse.After all if I am only making a mind bet I may as well go for the gusto.

I didn't know that Mucho Gusto was in this race, but if so, I will go for "the gusto," even though he is a bit of a nag! Thanks for the tip, Bob.

Ciaociao

I put some $$$ on Tail of Akati and Monba, both to win.

Heff and the girls next door are at the track, 1st time he's been here. That's the only thing I'll say I missed this year. Jiggle Babi*s jiggle.

Shamas O'Dognasty

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Shamas O'Dognasty
Gourmet Catering & Septic Tank Cleaning

Once again thanks for picking Big Brown.(picked up $150 on that one) What a horse! I know i'll bet him again in 2 weeks in Baltimore.

Good calls. Did not win but Brown came thru and show horse also picked. Well worth $ spent for opp to win big with longshots.

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Striving to fly more Continental but do not live in Newark or Houston.

Nice pics on Big B... I already had him in my sights and with a win, place , and show bet cash, I'm a happy camper.... Since you said it was a one horse race, you were totally correct....

Too bad about the filly (finished 2nd and broke both front ankles). They put her down immediately.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?sec ... id=3380098

Back Home after Derby weekend, for those who have never been and have any interest in big time thoroughbred racing, go at least once it’s an experience.

First off my observations.
Mint Juleps are awful. Sorry I had to try one but jeez certainly maybe the drink of the derby but this old man No thanks, give me a good single malt any day.

Crowds. Well since we went and left in Limo’s over two days, I did not have to deal with the multitudes of crowds but 157K people oh my god what energy and some of the most beautiful well “groomed” women I have ever seen and I’m not talking about the fillies on the race track.

The Race:
Oh man we were so close. We had a bomb in Denis of Cork 3, and Recapture the glory finished 5th another bomb. I simply could not bet the #2 regardless of the win in the Wood memorial. The times made that horse unplayable for me, but he gets 4th and since we didn’t have the two spot anyway, it makes no difference. A real tragedy the poor gal, Eight Belles. A super race horse that ran a great race. I did not think she could run with the boys, in fact I threw her out. Even though my handicapping programs consensus had her second. Just using the selections does not work, but in this case it would have returned the Trifecta. Even so I could not use her, but she was 2nd best.

Ended up with a fairly big Win / Place Bets on Brown, and also did a small $2.00 wheel 1st and second with the other horses not included in the original wagers. The payoff got us back most of our outlay of the day, but we took a beating all day at the other races so we got our clock cleaned pretty good. Regardless we tried and hope you at least had Big Brown to cover some of the exotic lottery tickets we tried.

See everyone in two weeks, now I am going to sleep for the next 30 hours!

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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"