Kentucky Derby 2008 Selections
Gentlemen:
The sport of kings and the most exciting 2 minutes of the year happens tomorrow as the 1st Saturday in May brings us one of the most competitive and best betting races in some time. The Kentucky Derby has always been one of my favorite times of year and this year as I report to you live from my hotel just outside of Keeneland, yes I know wrong track, but it is as close as I could get to Louisville on short notice.
I am here as a guest of an owner who unfortunately had his star horse come down with an injury and will not be running tomorrow, but this will be my first Two Days at Churchill Downs and exciting is an understatement.
Last year we did very well in both Derby & Preakness selections and hope to duplicate that with should be one heck of a race that is in my opinion anything BUT wide open. I will not get into the intricacies of each horse, but simply use some time proven methods that I have come to trust, and give you what in my opinion is a 1 horse race and everyone else chasing for second.
I have successfully used a computer based handicapping program at the ponies for many years and after tweaking, it then with today’s modern technology, being able to watch every single derby horses workouts, how they handle the track, compare work out times, etc, has allowed me to get a very good idea about what direction I wanted to go this year.
One issue that I can not get around is the fact that many of the so called favorites in this race have either only proven themselves on the “Polytrack†or synthetic type surfaces and have either never one on dirt or have performed poorly on dirt or in some cases NEVER RUN ON DIRT. This has made this a very difficult race to view as you certainly do not know who will take to the track and who will not and who will simply show up.
Let us also look at the other facts that in my opinion there are two big knocks on the favorite Big Brown. First off no horse in history has ever one making only their 4th start, and only 1 horse in almost 90 years has ever won from post 20. If this horse was inside or had a better draw he certainly would be a huge favorite, but these to glaring problems, will make him a lukewarm favorite at best. As far as I can see though those two knocks are the only things that go against this horse.
Looking at my computer Numbers, this is the only horse in the field that has not had a bounce factor. He duplicated his previous race by running huge in the Florida Derby, a race I attended with Gamlingman as I always do. Like Barbaro before he will attempt to win off the 5 week layoff, and we all know how that turned out!!!! He is on paper 15 lengths better than any horse in the field. Now spotting 10 lengths to the 1st turn from post 20 the fact that he has to use some early speed to gain the lead and the fact none of these horses have ever gone 11/4 mile, makes this the great equalizer. So If Big Brown is at his best he still will only be 1-2 lengths better than the field.
Where of course does that leave us? Do you make a value play or say Brown can’t win? Personally even with all the knocks against him, I can not see him any worse than 2nd as this is also the weakest derby fields in history. So I have to use Big Brown 1st and 2nd in my keys, and then look for value to either beat him or fall in behind him to make up a big exacta, Trifecta & superfecta which is going to be HUGE no matter how you look at it with the size of the field and betting pools.
So who will be our 4 horses to key him with that is the question.
#12 Smooth Air 7 for 7 in the Money, with Bennie Stutt’s first derby horse after a lifetime in the game. Ran a great Florida Derby clearly second best to Big Brown, look for a piece of the pie here.
#16 Dennis of Cork last on the earnings list but 3 wins out of 4 tries improving but came up empty his last race. No explanation for it but like what I saw at Oaklawn in February
#17 Cowboy Cal 5 out of 6 in the Money throw out his last race on Poly and another horse I watched all year in Florida. Will be a big price as only performed on Turf, but I think he could get a share here.
#18 Recapture the Glory. Everyone discounts this horse 5 out of 6 in the money and you simply can not discount his incredible win in the Illinois Derby. If he is even close to that form he has a shot as an upset.
I know I’m way out here with all these outside posts and going against tradition, but hey ANYONE can win this, I simply go with my gut and this is what comes up.
Off to the Kentucky Oaks now and Hope to see you all at the windows cashing your tickets tomorrow!
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GOOD LUCK BET WITH YOUR HEAD NOT OVER IT!
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"Money Won is twice as sweet as Money Earned!"
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