Wow! You guys are great -- rarely does a financial discussion thread go in the direction of
added value, as more people pile in, but you've done it here. (Especially anyone who tags his posts with Aldous Huxley -- still like his "exit plan" the best...
)
Here's the Kotlikoff link:
http://www.esplanner.com/Case%20Studies ... le_dip.htm
and the percent of benefit he cites is 15.8% additional sustainable spending, but other examples given with different circumstances are even higher. Possibility exists that this could be eliminated at some future time -- watch carefully if you're counting on it! -- or that interest could be charged on the payback.
All this points to you doing your own research, but good new ideas are rare in finance, so this was one "discovery" for 2008.
The stronger point for age 62, I thought, was the breakeven point at age 78 (with interest counted, maybe 82?) and the possible insolvency of the USGov. That's what's got my attention.
Also, I was not clear about the indexing provision, another rarely-known thing. It doesn't just apply to someone like the OP who stopped working early. The wage-adjustment indexing of your "youthful" earnings happens for everyone, and continues up to, last I read about it, age 60.
From that point onward, it's your actual earnings that get calculated into the mix, so if we hit a big inflationary zoom, that's going to leave a lot of people's
past earnings calculations in the dust, I think, unless they can start collecting soon, and then get the inflation bump-up going for them. (Which I suspect USG will not be able to keep up for very long. They will freeze and/or cap the benefits at some point, so you probably will want to be grandfathered in as early as possible.)
But, if you are still working, those years between 60 and, say, 66 or 70, need to be high-earning years for you to maintain the value of your eventual check. Otherwise, seems like you should cut out early, and nail down those 48 to 96 early checks. Might be all you ever get out of it.
Again, all this as the ignition for your own research, and run the numbers on your particular situation.
Me? -- I've been targeting a Costa Rica standard of retirement living, but if things keep getting worse, I'll be moseying on up Granada-way, or visiting those remote valleys in Colombia where BB57 has his hidden stash of chicas...
What's nice to know is that quality of life is no longer proportional to money, but basically adjustable toward a high level
however the money turns out, now that I've got several opciones to outsource myself to...