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Dollar Headed South
https://forum.costaricaticas.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=53881		 Page 3 of 4
Author:  Netgems [ Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
nosejelly wrote:
Netgems wrote:
Today Wednesday at 2:30 pm est, 12:30 pm CR time, the US Fed will announce an interest rate hike expected to be .75 bp but may be a full 1.00 bp.

Right now the usd to crc ratio is apx 630, who wants to bet me a SL fish sandwich that it rapidly increases shortly after if it's .75, and explodes to maybe 660 or more if it's a full point?

You heard it here first... :mrgreen:

Is The SL Fish Sandwich you refer to what some would call Latin Pink Snapper???



Well, lately from what I've been seeing "Pufferfish" might be more appropriate... :mrgreen:
Author:  Boynton [ Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Netgems wrote:
nosejelly wrote:
Netgems wrote:
Today Wednesday at 2:30 pm est, 12:30 pm CR time, the US Fed will announce an interest rate hike expected to be .75 bp but may be a full 1.00 bp.

Right now the usd to crc ratio is apx 630, who wants to bet me a SL fish sandwich that it rapidly increases shortly after if it's .75, and explodes to maybe 660 or more if it's a full point?

You heard it here first... :mrgreen:

Is The SL Fish Sandwich you refer to what some would call Latin Pink Snapper???



Well, lately from what I've been seeing "Pufferfish" might be more appropriate... :mrgreen:


1. I don't think of a 0.45% increase is quite an explosion.
2. I do like a nice set of puffies, but alas I doubt you were referencing nipples.
Author:  nosejelly [ Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Netgems wrote:
nosejelly wrote:
Netgems wrote:
Today Wednesday at 2:30 pm est, 12:30 pm CR time, the US Fed will announce an interest rate hike expected to be .75 bp but may be a full 1.00 bp.

Right now the usd to crc ratio is apx 630, who wants to bet me a SL fish sandwich that it rapidly increases shortly after if it's .75, and explodes to maybe 660 or more if it's a full point?

You heard it here first... :mrgreen:

Is The SL Fish Sandwich you refer to what some would call Latin Pink Snapper???



Well, lately from what I've been seeing "Pufferfish" might be more appropriate... :mrgreen:

I hear The Cien Boys are ruining the Pufferfish in CR!!!
Author:  Netgems [ Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
[

Well, lately from what I've been seeing "Pufferfish" might be more appropriate... :mrgreen:[/quote]

I hear The Cien Boys are ruining the Pufferfish in CR!!![/quote]

As well as the fried chicken, beans and rice, and fried bananas... :mrgreen:
Author:  Tuanis [ Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
The dollar is currently
trading at about 600 against the colon. In august. and you income is in dollar was trading at almost 700.
Which means is if you live here or come here for vacation you have lost about 17 percent of
your purchasing power. The price of P just got more expensive.
Author:  Zeos [ Sun Oct 16, 2022 4:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Tuanis wrote:
The dollar is currently
trading at about 600 against the colon. In august. and you income is in dollar was trading at almost 700.
Which means is if you live here or come here for vacation you have lost about 17 percent of
your purchasing power. The price of P just got more expensive.


And this increase in the value of the CRC is very strange. Every other currency in the world it seems is going down versus the USD, it is strange that the colon has increased. The CR government must be intervening in a big way to keep the value of the colon high.
Author:  Netgems [ Mon Oct 17, 2022 12:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Zeos wrote:
Tuanis wrote:
The dollar is currently
trading at about 600 against the colon. In august. and you income is in dollar was trading at almost 700.
Which means is if you live here or come here for vacation you have lost about 17 percent of
your purchasing power. The price of P just got more expensive.


And this increase in the value of the CRC is very strange. Every other currency in the world it seems is going down versus the USD, it is strange that the colon has increased. The CR government must be intervening in a big way to keep the value of the colon high.


Not only is the CRC spanking the USD, but also the Euro, Brit Pound, Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, pretty much every currency that has relationships with the CRC.

I'm in finance for decades and I can't figure it out and my Google searches in currency and finance results in no explanation, they have massive unemployment, strong inflation, massive unsustainable debt and still growing, other economic negative issues.

The only possible explanation is just about the time they rebounded, they borrowed another astounding amount of moola from the IMF, agreed to IMF imposed stringent Covid recovery measures and their once dwindling and shaky "currency reserves" expanded quite high.

It's somewhat of a temporary mirage, those reserves will be eventually spent, and CR, famous for padding pockets of government employees, both existing and retired and spending lavishly compared to GDP should eventually start tumbling again.

Next time any of us are negotiating with a ho down from "cien", we should bring this matter up as to why we're offering only $70 or $80...

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... er-the-eff

https://tradingeconomics.com/costa-rica ... e-reserves
Author:  Zeos [ Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Netgems wrote:
Zeos wrote:
Tuanis wrote:
The dollar is currently
trading at about 600 against the colon. In august. and you income is in dollar was trading at almost 700.
Which means is if you live here or come here for vacation you have lost about 17 percent of
your purchasing power. The price of P just got more expensive.


And this increase in the value of the CRC is very strange. Every other currency in the world it seems is going down versus the USD, it is strange that the colon has increased. The CR government must be intervening in a big way to keep the value of the colon high.


Not only is the CRC spanking the USD, but also the Euro, Brit Pound, Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, pretty much every currency that has relationships with the CRC.

I'm in finance for decades and I can't figure it out and my Google searches in currency and finance results in no explanation, they have massive unemployment, strong inflation, massive unsustainable debt and still growing, other economic negative issues.

The only possible explanation is just about the time they rebounded, they borrowed another astounding amount of moola from the IMF, agreed to IMF imposed stringent Covid recovery measures and their once dwindling and shaky "currency reserves" expanded quite high.

It's somewhat of a temporary mirage, those reserves will be eventually spent, and CR, famous for padding pockets of government employees, both existing and retired and spending lavishly compared to GDP should eventually start tumbling again.

Next time any of us are negotiating with a ho down from "cien", we should bring this matter up as to why we're offering only $70 or $80...

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... er-the-eff

https://tradingeconomics.com/costa-rica ... e-reserves


Exactly... I've been searching too and found no explanation, and had also wondered about the IMF loan effect. I certainly know how the colon has been spanking other currencies as the dolar canadiense has been hammered even more than the USD.
Author:  Netgems [ Mon Oct 17, 2022 5:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Zeos :

Exactly... I've been searching too and found no explanation, and had also wondered about the IMF loan effect. I certainly know how the colon has been spanking other currencies as the dolar canadiense has been hammered even more than the USD.[/quote]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I know hoz with third grade educations who grew up in abject poverty easily outwit and outmaneuver friends of mine who were millionaires, multi-millionaires, guys who own their own companies, guys with master's degrees, retired lawyers, retired police officers and detectives, even on occasion cynical and untrusting me, and even one guy who is a best selling author of a book on Costa Rica and uncovered investment fraud here.

Perhaps Costa Rica hired some to outmaneuver the IMF, lol... :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Author:  Boynton [ Mon Oct 17, 2022 5:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
In 51 days (December 6) every employer, public or private, must pay every employee an amount equal to 1/12 of what they were paid during the year. If an employer doesn't pay, they get shut down. It must be paid in colones. This creates a seasonable demand for the local currency.
Author:  Netgems [ Mon Oct 17, 2022 10:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Boynton wrote:
In 51 days (December 6) every employer, public or private, must pay every employee an amount equal to 1/12 of what they were paid during the year. If an employer doesn't pay, they get shut down. It must be paid in colones. This creates a seasonable demand for the local currency.


Twelve years ago here I was managing an online casino call center, I remember receiving two paychecks one December, I went into accounting and told them they made a mistake and issued two paychecks to me, they explained what it was, my ho consumption that month doubled too... :mrgreen:

Giving back to the community...that's who I am...that's what I do... :roll:
Author:  Boynton [ Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
The CR Treasury pays the Christmas Bonus (Aguinaldo) this Friday to all public employees and pensioners of the CCSS. The cash dump will be over c160 BILLION colones ($275,000,000USD) in one big grunt. All other employees must receive their cash-induced sugar rush shortly after.

https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/funcio ... e-viernes/

This year, the payments are on a Friday before a 3-Day weekend (05-Dec is a national holiday). Plus, on Thursday, CR will either be eliminated from the World Cup competition or advanced to the next stage.

What this means to gringo's
1. ATM's will have long lines and run out of cash. Get what you need out before Friday.
2. BUY any vital fluids (beer & hooch) before Thursday.
3. IGNORE the exchange rate until after the end of the year.
Author:  Tuanis [ Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Boynton Hope you''r right. Changed some dollars yesterday at BCR 592.

Sucks
Author:  Boynton [ Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Tuanis wrote:
Boynton Hope you''r right.

There is a first time for everything :lol:
Author:  Ulysses [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dollar Headed South
Boynton wrote:
The CR Treasury pays the Christmas Bonus (Aguinaldo) this Friday to all public employees and pensioners of the CCSS. The cash dump will be over c160 BILLION colones ($275,000,000USD) in one big grunt. All other employees must receive their cash-induced sugar rush shortly after.

https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/funcio ... e-viernes/

This year, the payments are on a Friday before a 3-Day weekend (05-Dec is a national holiday). Plus, on Thursday, CR will either be eliminated from the World Cup competition or advanced to the next stage.

What this means to gringo's
1. ATM's will have long lines and run out of cash. Get what you need out before Friday.
2. BUY any vital fluids (beer & hooch) before Thursday.
3. IGNORE the exchange rate until after the end of the year.


To add some additional color, many of the big private sector employers in Costa Rica are US Corporations, and their operations in Costa Rica are cost centers with little or no local revenue (Amazon, Microsoft, ect).

What this means is they have to change a substantial amount of dollars into colones in order to pay those bonuses. So, this increases demand for colones while introducing an ample supply of dollars.

So, the end of the year always brings this dollar value crash.

Also, the real thing driving exchange rates are central bank interest rates.

https://countryeconomy.com/key-rates/costa-rica

As you can see Costa Rica went from 1.75 percent to 9 percent on the central rate this year. So, they kept up with the dollar interest rate hikes, preventing massive devaluation.

So, do not expect the colon to take a dive just now.

https://www.crhoy.com/economia/por-que- ... ponsables/

However, Ticos are getting hit with crushing interest rates. Credit card rates are often 50 percent annual. Next year could see more unemployment and businesses that run out of cash are going to crash hard.
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