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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:58 pm 
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Ulysses wrote:
Boynton wrote:
The CR Treasury pays the Christmas Bonus (Aguinaldo) this Friday to all public employees and pensioners of the CCSS. The cash dump will be over c160 BILLION colones ($275,000,000USD) in one big grunt. All other employees must receive their cash-induced sugar rush shortly after.

https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/funcio ... e-viernes/

This year, the payments are on a Friday before a 3-Day weekend (05-Dec is a national holiday). Plus, on Thursday, CR will either be eliminated from the World Cup competition or advanced to the next stage.

What this means to gringo's
1. ATM's will have long lines and run out of cash. Get what you need out before Friday.
2. BUY any vital fluids (beer & hooch) before Thursday.
3. IGNORE the exchange rate until after the end of the year.


To add some additional color, many of the big private sector employers in Costa Rica are US Corporations, and their operations in Costa Rica are cost centers with little or no local revenue (Amazon, Microsoft, ect).

What this means is they have to change a substantial amount of dollars into colones in order to pay those bonuses. So, this increases demand for colones while introducing an ample supply of dollars.

So, the end of the year always brings this dollar value crash.

Also, the real thing driving exchange rates are central bank interest rates.

https://countryeconomy.com/key-rates/costa-rica

As you can see Costa Rica went from 1.75 percent to 9 percent on the central rate this year. So, they kept up with the dollar interest rate hikes, preventing massive devaluation.

So, do not expect the colon to take a dive just now.

https://www.crhoy.com/economia/por-que- ... ponsables/

However, Ticos are getting hit with crushing interest rates. Credit card rates are often 50 percent annual. Next year could see more unemployment and businesses that run out of cash are going to crash hard.


One additional factor that will "stabilize" the colon (but keep inflation high) is that CR will shifting $3 Billion of its debt to Eurobonds instead of colones. This gives the central bank leeway to play with the money supply since the government won't be issuing CR bonds (which nobody would buy).

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:39 pm 
PHD From Del Rey University!
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Boynton wrote:
Ulysses wrote:
Boynton wrote:
The CR Treasury pays the Christmas Bonus (Aguinaldo) this Friday to all public employees and pensioners of the CCSS. The cash dump will be over c160 BILLION colones ($275,000,000USD) in one big grunt. All other employees must receive their cash-induced sugar rush shortly after.

https://www.crhoy.com/nacionales/funcio ... e-viernes/

This year, the payments are on a Friday before a 3-Day weekend (05-Dec is a national holiday). Plus, on Thursday, CR will either be eliminated from the World Cup competition or advanced to the next stage.

What this means to gringo's
1. ATM's will have long lines and run out of cash. Get what you need out before Friday.
2. BUY any vital fluids (beer & hooch) before Thursday.
3. IGNORE the exchange rate until after the end of the year.


To add some additional color, many of the big private sector employers in Costa Rica are US Corporations, and their operations in Costa Rica are cost centers with little or no local revenue (Amazon, Microsoft, ect).

What this means is they have to change a substantial amount of dollars into colones in order to pay those bonuses. So, this increases demand for colones while introducing an ample supply of dollars.

So, the end of the year always brings this dollar value crash.

Also, the real thing driving exchange rates are central bank interest rates.

https://countryeconomy.com/key-rates/costa-rica

As you can see Costa Rica went from 1.75 percent to 9 percent on the central rate this year. So, they kept up with the dollar interest rate hikes, preventing massive devaluation.

So, do not expect the colon to take a dive just now.

https://www.crhoy.com/economia/por-que- ... ponsables/

However, Ticos are getting hit with crushing interest rates. Credit card rates are often 50 percent annual. Next year could see more unemployment and businesses that run out of cash are going to crash hard.


One additional factor that will "stabilize" the colon (but keep inflation high) is that CR will shifting $3 Billion of its debt to Eurobonds instead of colones. This gives the central bank leeway to play with the money supply since the government won't be issuing CR bonds (which nobody would buy).


B, you are always very astute, but it is still cien , no matter how hard we try, except for Whitecat.

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:48 am 
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The danger here is that all the Gringo Gulch putas who subscribe to and read the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News will be aware of this and raise their prices accordingly, not to mention the already existing "Costing methodologies and different geopolitical forces." Be careful Cien Boy's, it's a rough world out there.

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:42 pm 
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Whitecat wrote:
The danger here is that all the Gringo Gulch putas who subscribe to and read the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News will be aware of this and raise their prices accordingly, not to mention the already existing "Costing methodologies and different geopolitical forces." Be careful Cien Boy's, it's a rough world out there.


Word on the street is hoz got wind of the social security cola increase of about 8% and have been now demanding cien plus $8.00... :mrgreen: :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:11 am 
I can do CR without a wingman!
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Good the chicas deserve a raise! 110.00 is the future! + propina of course

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 10:34 am 
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Netgems wrote:
Whitecat wrote:
The danger here is that all the Gringo Gulch putas who subscribe to and read the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News will be aware of this and raise their prices accordingly, not to mention the already existing "Costing methodologies and different geopolitical forces." Be careful Cien Boy's, it's a rough world out there.


Word on the street is hoz got wind of the social security cola increase of about 8% and have been now demanding cien plus $8.00... :mrgreen: :shock:


It's 8.7%! Beware cien boys......

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 11:33 am 
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CR annual inflation rate in November was 8.2% overall. Food inflation was 20%.
https://tradingeconomics.com/costa-rica/inflation-cpi

By comparison, US was 7.7, Argentina was 88%, Venezuela was 156%
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-li ... nt=america

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 Post subject: Re: Dollar Headed South
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:20 pm 
Ticas ask me for advice!
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Inflation in the US is WAY higher.
As George Carlin used to advise, don't believe anything the government tells you.

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