Mongeral wrote:
The U.S. Dollar has risen six percent against the Euro since Jan. 1st, and has risen against many other currencies also, but in Costa Rica it has fallen by 10 percent or so and is still falling.
There is no market-based reason for the sharp decline in CR, except that CR banks probably found themselves not holding a lot of dollars this winter and so are beating it down. Of course it could have something to do with this new love affair that the CR government has with China also, and with China trying to force the Yuan to replace the dollar as the world reserve/trading currency.
You'd think that North American tourism dollars would be more valued here, since tourism is CR's biggest industry. But the banks here are basically telling us to suck it up and fork over more and more money. Maybe it's time to go play in Medellin or Rio for a while and let the Costa Rican bankers do without so many dollars for a while.
Mongeral (Al?),
With currencies, there is always a market-based reason for movements unless the local government is doing something to manipulate their own currency.
The Costa Rican government could be doing something to keep the Colon stronger against the Dollar, but I don't know why they would do this. It's in their own best interest to have the Colon stable or even weaker against the Dollar to help with exports to the U.S. A weaker Colon also helps draw tourists as you mentioned.
There is nothing that Costa Rica can do to affect the Dollar internationally, outside of Costa Rica. It's too small.
Your suggestion to go to Colombia or Brasil because of the weak Dollar does not hold water. Over the past 12 months, the Dollar is down 10% vs Costa Rica (Colon), but it is also down 16% vs Colombia (Peso), down 20% vs Brasil (Real), and down 7% vs Mexico (Peso).
Since the end of last year (Dec 2009), the Dollar is down 10% vs Costa Rica, down 4% vs Colombia, and down 6% vs Mexico. The Dollar is up a little vs Brazil since December, but only 1%.
There may be many good reasons to go to Colombia and Brasil rather than Costa Rica, but the recent weakness of the Dollar in Latin America isn't one of them.
By the way, while the Dollar is up 7% vs the Euro since December due to the Greek crisis, the Dollar is still down 3% vs the Euro over the past 12 months.