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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:53 pm 
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El Ornitorrinco wrote:
NEWSFLASH: we're all gonna buy it sooner or later, but this is the flu, for Christsakes.


Thanks for the news flash. Here I was laboring under the misapprehension that some of us were guaranteed life forever. :shock: Another dream turns out to be just a myth. :P :roll:

Seriously if the subject annoys you just stop reading and posting in the thread. When I logged on it showed two posts unread since my last log on. BOTH were titled swine flu and BOTH had the last post from you. :shock: Guess you not to tired of the subject to stop participating in the discussion. :P :lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:54 pm 
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Prolijo wrote:
... The way Berk has been covering this thing it seems like he sees it as the potential "end of civilization as we know it" or another pandemic like the Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919 which killed 50million people worldwide or the Bubonic Plague of the 1300's. I suppose he's still convinced that the world is heading towards global economic devastation and permanent depression too.....


I honestly believe you either can't read or can't comprehend. Here is everything I have posted on the subject in this thread. I suggest you need to get your facts correct, before you feel the need to post 5,020 words on the subject compared to my 473 + or - a few. :roll: :roll: :roll:

POST 1 -Think again.... 3 flights arriving from Mexico City into SJO today. http://www.alterra.co.cr/fiws/

POST 2 - I am going to disagree. "Swine" flu is NOT your common, run of the mill influenza and for good reason. It's generally much more virulent with a higher mortality rate taking young adults in their 20's and 30's.

POST 3 - As of today there is no pandemic. My disagreement is with WHY various countries have declared public health emergencies. It's because of the specific disease itself and the human to human transmission. That is almost impossible to contain and the WHO has now made a statement similar to that in that efforts should be to mitigate the disease because containment is impossible. My additional comments were FYI to all readers.

24 to 72 hours and I predict the WHO will raise the level to 5... pandemic stage. (this happened 48 hours into my prediction)

POST 4 - What we have is a little more than a "health scare", but I do understand your point. I think I'll go to Delta and American's website and check to see how many open seats there are on flights to Mexico City today.
Berk...
P.S. I checked American...... today and tomorrow they are loaded with open seats at 90 bucks one way out of DFW.

POST 5 - You are 99.999% out of luck on the vaccine you received 30 years ago for swine flu. The longest lasting vaccines are 10 years in duration requiring either a booster or the the full vaccine for continued protection. The other issue is what you received 30 years ago, even if it was still effective for that particular strain, is that the current strain has probably mutated and the antibodies you would have floating around might be of little to no use.

POST 6 - H1N1 or swine flu isn't your everyday garden variety seasonal flu.
Seasonal being the key word. Is there cause for panic? No. Will it get worse... I bet it will. 1918 all over again... very, very unlikely.

POST 7 - The alert has been raised to stage 5. Quote:
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short. (WHO website)

POST 8 - While both SARS and Swine influenza are viruses and affect the respiratory tract that pretty much is where the comparison stops... in general. SARS came on the scene in 2003, infected a little over 8,000 people resulting in the death of 775 more or less. That's almost a 1% mortality rate. Swine flu is much more easily spread. Where it will lead and who it might take with it no one knows at this point.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 6:31 pm 
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Irish Drifter wrote:
El Ornitorrinco wrote:
NEWSFLASH: we're all gonna buy it sooner or later, but this is the flu, for Christsakes.


Thanks for the news flash. Here I was laboring under the misapprehension that some of us were guaranteed life forever. :shock: Another dream turns out to be just a myth. :P :roll:

Seriously if the subject annoys you just stop reading and posting in the thread. When I logged on it showed two posts unread since my last log on. BOTH were titled swine flu and BOTH had the last post from you. :shock: Guess you not to tired of the subject to stop participating in the discussion. :P :lol:


What can I say? Stupid topics bring out the misanthrope in me. :roll:

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 7:47 pm 
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I spoke to a friend the other day who is going there a few weeks after I'll be in CR. He said he is going to bring a thermometer for the chicas. Jees, I told him how can you even relax and have a good time thinking like that. Just use common sense or save your money and stay home and buy yourself a blow up doll and spray it with lysol, soak in rubbing alcohol and don't leave your house . He is now cured from his bout with paranoia.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:11 pm 
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Berk,
The key is no just in what you reposted but in the quotes you left out and the context. For example, this is your FULL opening post in this thread in which you quoted an obviously overworked and distraught Mexican doctor as your source:
Berk2302 wrote:
Prolijo wrote:
....These various countries have declared public health emergencies not because we have an actual pandemic, but rather out of an abundance of caution to PREVENT that from happening.


I am going to disagree. "Swine" flu is NOT your common, run of the mill influenza and for good reason. It's generally much more virulent with a higher mortality rate taking young adults in their 20's and 30's.
Quote:
I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.
There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City


http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/04/swine_flu_what_you_dont_know_h.php

Berk......
That would seem to be pretty alarming to me, IF I were to believe that it accurately portrayed the full situation that the world is facing and that things were as dire as you seemed to be suggesting by reposting it.

I'll repeat a couple of key parts of it:"Despite the heroic efforts of all staff ... patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses." That is in direct contradiction from what has been posted on the CDC website and being reported by all responsible media. And then there is this: "The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks." That would amount to 60-70 dead from this virus at just that 1 hospital, which is nearly half of what has been reported for the whole country. Mexico may be cooking the books on the extent of their problem but I tend to have a lot more faith in the US which is reporting just 1 death out of 109 confirmed cases (and that being the death of a sickly baby which had fallen ill several weeks before they really knew what was going wrong and how to treat it). That might make it more virulent and deadly than regular flu, but regular flu is much more extensive with 35K deaths per year in this country and even that pales in comparison to the number of deaths we have from various other diseases.

The rest of your posts may have varied in terms of how dire they depicted the threat and my own mocking comment towards you was sarcastic hyperbole, but as whole none of your comments on this subject could really be characterized as emphasizing the positive or as being particularly optimistic. You do seem to be in the camp of those who think this is something we have to be really worried about and I agree we should be, at least a little bit. But I think there are a lot of guys, like El O and DRDave, who think the POSSIBILITY of a things getting much worse than they actually are (or probably will ever get) is being overhyped up by the 24/7 news media, their need for a dramatic story, and the natural tendency for people to react the way they are and repeat the most negative newsbits, the way you and some others have. There is a much sensationalism as there is real science driving the discussion of this whole thing and that has a way of feeding on itself. You've been feeding it with some of your posts while I've been trying to quell the concerns with a dose of facts, history and comparisons. I'm sorry if that takes a lot of words.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:16 pm 
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Prolijo wrote:
Berk,
The key is no just in what you reposted but in the quotes you left out and the context. For example, this is your FULL opening post in this thread in which you quoted an obviously overworked and distraught Mexican doctor as your source:
Berk2302 wrote:
Prolijo wrote:
....These various countries have declared public health emergencies not because we have an actual pandemic, but rather out of an abundance of caution to PREVENT that from happening.


I am going to disagree. "Swine" flu is NOT your common, run of the mill influenza and for good reason. It's generally much more virulent with a higher mortality rate taking young adults in their 20's and 30's.
Quote:
I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.
There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City


http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/04/swine_flu_what_you_dont_know_h.php

Berk......
That would seem to be pretty alarming to me, IF I were to believe that it accurately portrayed the full situation that the world is facing and that things were as dire as you seemed to be suggesting by reposting it.

I'll repeat a couple of key parts of it:"Despite the heroic efforts of all staff ... patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses." That is in direct contradiction from what has been posted on the CDC website and being reported by all responsible media. And then there is this: "The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks." That would amount to 60-70 dead from this virus at just that 1 hospital, which is nearly half of what has been reported for the whole country. Mexico may be cooking the books on the extent of their problem but I tend to have a lot more faith in the US which is reporting just 1 death out of 109 confirmed cases (and that being the death of a sickly baby which had fallen ill several weeks before they really knew what was going wrong and how to treat it). That might make it more virulent and deadly than regular flu, but regular flu is much more extensive with 35K deaths per year in this country and even that pales in comparison to the number of deaths we have from various other diseases.

The rest of your posts may have varied in terms of how dire they depicted the threat and my own mocking comment towards you was sarcastic hyperbole, but as whole none of your comments on this subject could really be characterized as emphasizing the positive or as being particularly optimistic. You do seem to be in the camp of those who think this is something we have to be really worried about and I agree we should be, at least a little bit. But I think there are a lot of guys, like El O and DRDave, who think the POSSIBILITY of a things getting much worse than they actually are (or probably will ever get) is being overhyped up by the 24/7 news media, their need for a dramatic story, and the natural tendency for people to react the way they are and repeat the most negative newsbits, the way you and some others have. There is a much sensationalism as there is real science driving the discussion of this whole thing and that has a way of feeding on itself. You've been feeding it with some of your posts while I've been trying to quell the concerns with a dose of facts, history and comparisons. I'm sorry if that takes a lot of words.


Cut this down to a reasonable length and I'll read your layman's opinion.

Berk....

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:18 pm 
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Location: NFM--Geezers, cowpokes and the working poor--yeeha!
I don't know about y'all but I'm gonna quit phucking pigs--at least when I visit Florida. That new anti-bestiality law they've got helped that decision too.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:34 pm 
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Berk2302 wrote:

Cut this down to a reasonable length and I'll read your layman's opinion.

Berk....


If you get off your pedestal and act like a reasonable human instead of some egotistical jerk you might find people willing to view your posts with something more than the usual Berk spew. Oh, I do suspect you are a medical professional, as to what I won't guess but you have the attitude and ego of most of those that have a swollen head that their profession and knowledge some how puts them above the rest of the world. I work with doctors and more so those connected with HHS and the various departments under it and CDC. You know what separates them from you? They are willing to answer questions and make people at ease instead of just writing belligerent comments. You apparently need to go back and receive more training in patient empathy. If you can't connect with those you serve, you have failed to deliver quality care.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:45 pm 
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Don't even bother Spank. You're assuming we all give a shit to want his opinion. That's not necessarily a slam as much as it's a general statement.

I mean really "Oh please Pro, condense your post so I can hear berks opinion on swine flu", no thanks :|

So in this case he might not have been a berk er I mean jerk, but instead really thinks we give any credence to his pseudo medical knowledge.

Cujo

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:18 pm 
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Thanks guys! :D I sometimes forget that just because most guys don't take the time to comment on Berk's crackpot opinions doesn't mean that most of them agree with him. It just means that most guys have stopped listening and just no longer bother.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:36 pm 
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Prolijo wrote:
Thanks guys! :D I sometimes forget that just because most guys don't take the time to comment on Berk's crackpot opinions doesn't mean that most of them agree with him. It just means that most guys have stopped listening and just no longer bother.


Think you are reading a lot into the replies from two individuals. You like to deal in numbers so how does 2 out of 18683 compute :?:

Really do not care if you or Berk are correct this is a forum and everyone is entitled to their opinion.


Gentleman go back to your corners and come out at the bell. Remember to protect yourself at all times.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 9:39 pm 
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JazzboCR wrote:
I don't know about y'all but I'm gonna quit phucking pigs--at least when I visit Florida. That new anti-bestiality law they've got helped that decision too.
...Funny! 8)


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:29 pm 
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Location: NFM--Geezers, cowpokes and the working poor--yeeha!
My last post was smarty-pants; this one's more serious.
First, a big kudos to Brother Prolijo for his knowledgeable, calming exposition (especially the "Exec Summary)--no less than we've come to expect from him. That's not taking sides, merely praise where it's due.
Next, we apparently have a pandemic to deal with. How do we prevent "the fire next time"? This Op-Ed piece heps explain what we (as the human race) need to do:
www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/opinion/30wolfe.html

A side note--The Spanish Flu Epidemic of 1918 killed more US troops than enemy bullets--doubtless it was the unhygienic conditions and lack of planning at Camp Dix in NJ.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:53 pm 
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Has this thread reached a pandemic level yet?

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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2009 12:50 am 
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Del Rey Dave wrote:
Has this thread reached a pandemic level yet?
Yes it has and it's time to shave my balls now.

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