www.CostaRicaTicas.com

This will more than likely fizzle out like west nile, SARS and bird flu. The fact that it is almost summer should help in stopping the spread which is quickest in winter when everybody is inside a lot.

_________________
I believe in moderation in everything except excess.
I phuck 'em just to see the look on their face.
Klatu, berata, nicto.

Thanks again ID, Not having heard any reference to the flu about 30 years ago I suspected what you said.

When Jesus walked the earth He said to let the Ch*ldren come to Him. There is a difference between religon and spirituality. God is spirit. And in Spirit he has told me He loves baby's. And that is good enough for me.

And I know you agree, my friend.

_________________
Take a walk on the wild side.

so, let me take this topic way, way out in left field...

anyway, being a student of the good Sisters of Notre Dame at our local parish school, I remember asking once where innocents such as unbaptized Babi*s did go.

The burning pits of hell (reserved for such whore mongers as El Ciego, or so according to his dream date of season past) seemed a bit harsh.

the good Sisters' answer was that such innocents go to Limbo.

"And what do they do in Limbo" I further inquired.

"Oh, they grow up with their friends and such, picnicing, playing kickball, swimming, etc....

"And what do they do in Heaven"?

"Oh, they sit around in white robes on stone benches and pray all day and night for eternity"

"Huh, where do I sign up for Limbo?"

(I now return you to the original, and indeed serious, subject matter)

_________________
The difference between a Sea Story and a Fairy Tale is that a Fairy Tale starts out 'Once Upon a Time..' and a Sea Story starts out 'This is no Shit...'

(export version only, some restrictions may apply, some assembly required, not valid where the sun don't shine...

if you live in the states of Poverty, Darkness or anywhere outside of The Blessings of Civilization Trust, Inc...other rules may apply)

You are 99.999% out of luck on the vaccine you received 30 years ago for swine flu. The longest lasting vaccines are 10 years in duration requiring either a booster or the the full vaccine for continued protection. The other issue is what you received 30 years ago, even if it was still effective for that particular strain, is that the current strain has probably mutated and the antibodies you would have floating around might be of little to no use.

Berk....

_________________
FRUITCAKE... and you thought it was something you eat! Not on CRT!

H1N1 or swine flu isn't your everyday garden variety seasonal flu.
Seasonal being the key word. Is there cause for panic? No. Will it get worse... I bet it will. 1918 all over again... very, very unlikely.

Berk.....

_________________
FRUITCAKE... and you thought it was something you eat! Not on CRT!

If it's comparable to SARS, it won't be that bad. As someone who lived close to ground zero of the Canadian SARS scare, I didn't notice much different aside from media fear-mongering.

_________________
I fart in your general direction. Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelled of elderberries. Now go away, or I shall taunt you a second time!

The alert has been raised to stage 5.



Berk....

_________________
FRUITCAKE... and you thought it was something you eat! Not on CRT!

Lee ..Level 5
How is the plant?

While both SARS and Swine influenza are viruses and affect the respiratory tract that pretty much is where the comparison stops... in general. SARS came on the scene in 2003, infected a little over 8,000 people resulting in the death of 775 more or less. That's almost a 1% mortality rate. Swine flu is much more easily spread. Where it will lead and who it might take with it no one knows at this point.

Berk....

_________________
FRUITCAKE... and you thought it was something you eat! Not on CRT!

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: SARS mortality rate actually closer to 10% not 1% and Swine Flu morality <10% in Mexico and <10% in the US. IMHO, the INITIAL death rate in Mexico is artificially high and likely to go down. The Ebola virus is actually much more deadly than either of them but for that very reason less likely to become a pandemic. Because of it low mortality rate the swine flu is not as likely to be as serious as several EXISTING pandemics that are already out there. IMHO, this swine flu while a "Pandemic" (oowee) in the sense that there are 10's or 100's of people who may die from it worldwide, is not likely to spread too extensively given the time of year and the ability of the world to respond to it and by the time it can, we'll hopefully have better treatments or even vaccines to insure that a lot of people don't get sick and die from it. There's no sense worrying about what MIGHT be especially if there isn't much we can do about it anyway and in the end this scare probably won't make that much of a difference to most of us anyway.

-------------
Its comparable to SARS in that it is a virus that can mutate and pose a risk of becoming a pandemic. But of course there are important differences.

Actually I think Berketta needs to recheck his math. Using his figures, the SARS mortality rate is closer to 10% not just 1% as he minimized it. Actually, at the time, initial estimates ran as high as 20% or more, but that went down as treatment got much better. In contrast, the infamous Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 had a mortality rate of just 2% (and that was primarily because of the lower state of advancement of medical care and the absence of antibiotics). The reason that flu pandemic was so much more deadly was because so many more people got the flu that the 2% amount really added up. Fast forward until today. As of now, IN MEXICO, roughly 150 people out of 2000 suspected cases of swine flu have died or less than 10%. In the US, so far, the rate is 1 out of 109 cases or less than 1%.

I don't know but suspect that the reason the death rate has been so much higher in Mexico is because that is where it first broke out and because the people are poorer there with less access to health care. I suspect that when people first started becoming ill in Mexico they thought it was a regular flu and avoided going to the doctor until it was much more advanced and thus less treatable. THAT is why so many have died in Mexico. I find it extremely interesting that despite all the hullabaloo, the death count in Mexico seems to have frozen at close to the 150 mark with a much lower apparent mortality rate for more recent cases. In the US, the one and only death so far was of a little infant from Mexico with "other underlying health issues" who had been gravely sick since the beginning of April before any one even knew there was this outbreak. Again, all the much more recent cases of swine flu seem to be responding to treatment and only ONE person has had to be hospitalized.

BTW, swine flu is also different from the Ebola virus. In that case, we're talking about a 50-90% mortality rate (depending on which strain you get) and a horrible death occurs within 6-10 days. Ironically, it is that very severity that made Ebola LESS likely to turn into a pandemic. People weren't contagious until it was pretty clear something very serious was wrong with them and then they died very quickly before they had much chance to spread what they had to anyone else. Of course, the risk is always there that Ebola could mutate in a way that makes it easier to spread and it still might one day become a true pandemic. Why doesn't Berk fret about that for a little while?

In contrast, the flu has 1-2 important differences which make it more likely to spread than those other diseases. For one thing, people who have it can be contagious before the onset of symptoms that let them know they have it. This is why it is really futile to try and screen people at the airports unless we wanted to put everyone into quarantine for the 1-2 days it takes for the virus to incubate and symptoms to appear. Secondly because it is much less lethal AND less debilitating sick people are less likely to seek immediate medical attention the moment they become sick the way they would with Ebola and thus they have more time and opportunities to spread whatever they have to others.

Even if this becomes a global pandemic, as is entirely possible, so frikken what? The way Berk has been covering this thing it seems like he sees it as the potential "end of civilization as we know it" or another pandemic like the Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919 which killed 50million people worldwide or the Bubonic Plague of the 1300's. I suppose he's still convinced that the world is heading towards global economic devastation and permanent depression too. The fact is that we already have SEVERAL pandemics going on in the world today, most of which most of us give barely any thought to on a daily basis. And a big part of that is because we have the health resources in this country that makes the possibility of massive deaths like those that occurred from such diseases as flu and cholera in the last 2 centuries much less likely. For example, we already have HIV-AIDS which has killed or will kill100's of millions of people worldwide (ie much more than the Spanish Flu from WW1), there is also Malaria which kills or sickens millions of people worldwide (350-500M new cases each year though very few in this country). Tuberculosis killed 1/4th the population of Europe in the 18th century and over 100M people during the 20th Century. It was thought to be on its way out but is making a resurgence and partially because of or overuse or misuse of antibiotics is coming back with drug-resistant strains of MDR-TB, XDR or UDR-TB (extensively and ultra drug resistant) with as many as 50K new cases of these strains each year and 50M existing cases of this extremely difficult to treat and otherwise fatal disease. We've all learned to live with the possibility of getting these and other more or less fatal contagious diseases.

Finally, what about this flu itself? Regular seasonal flu which is far more common and afflicts far more people already kills 35K people in the US every year but we don't quake in fear about that. This type of swine flu MIGHT be more deadly than regular flu but we're still not looking at the type of mortality rates that we see from far more common ailments such as breast or colon cancer. What we're probably looking at is a type of flu with more severe symptoms than regular flu but from which nearly everyone will eventually recover with proper medication. It will probably spread a lot more over the next few weeks though still not to the extent of other illnesses that we already have widespread in our population, and I predict it will naturally start to abate over the summer months as flu strains normally do. By the time of the next flu season it will probably resurge but by then we'll hopefully have a vaccine like we do for other seasonal flus in sufficient stocks to give to our higher risk population groups. And then after that it will probably be just another flu strain that is out there like the H3N2 "Hong Kong Flu", which killed 34K people in the US and 1M worldwide back in 1968 but which still lingers around today.

Finally, I don't think wringing our hands and worrying about worst case scenarios does anybody any good, at least not any of us. There are people who are paid to worry about such things AND do something about it to see that the worst case does not come to pass. We can not do anything about it other than to do the things that we've should have been doing all along during flu season such as covering our mouths when we sneeze or cough, washing our hands regularly, etc. and avoiding travel and/or crowds when we are sick or a lot of people in our communities are sick. If a vaccine becomes available AND we're deemed to be in a high-risk group, then we'll take our shots. If it becomes a REAL Pandemic in the sense of widespread deaths at a level that stands out ABOVE the number of deaths from illnesses that we ALREADY experience every year, then we'll have to re-evaluate and possibly change our lifestyles (the way some of us did since the advent of HIV/AIDS), but other than that I really don't expect this particular "pandemic" to change anything and a lot of the reporting is only so much "sky is falling" paranoia and sensationalism.

Thank you
Would you mind translating that great post to spanish so I can show it to the chicas one my trip in 11 days which I will be going on unless it is forbiden
Flu we don't need no stinking Flu

When you get some ugly chick you don't want near you just start coughing!

_________________
[url=http://www.amishrakefight.org/gfy/]

Gentlemen,

You can get updates daily regarding CR Swine Flu cases on AM Costarica.

http://www.amcostarica.com/index.htm

Today`s edition 04/30/09 on page 2 states the following;

"More than 100 cases are being studied in Costa Rica, officials said, even though the confirmed cases of swine flu are just two cases. Both individuals had been to México".

Bill
Sportsmens Lodge

Somebody nudge me when this topic is over.. Keep clicking because it shows new post in General and like six times it is just something else about pig flu...

Yeah, really. This is getting ridiculous, guys thinking of cancelling their trips, people debating mask-wearing...NEWSFLASH: we're all gonna buy it sooner or later, but this is the flu, for Christsakes. If you're reasonably healthy, you MAY get sick, but likely won't die.

STOP THE MADNESS!!!

_________________
I fart in your general direction. Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelled of elderberries. Now go away, or I shall taunt you a second time!