www.CostaRicaTicas.com

Hi DiegoC,

I haven't finished the book yet so can't answer where the time frame of the book ends. There is one great quote of Keynes though when he (Keynes) says that he wished FDR would stop attacking the utilities so much and focus on other problems. Keynes had the right economic theories at the right time. By that I don't mean that he had really figured out the economic cycle, what I mean is his theories were timely in that they were politically useful in giving some cover to taking politically popular stands. The Phillips Curve did the same thing years ago. That was an economic theory that at higher rates of inflation we had lower rates of unemployment. Sounds rational and an economic case for that can be made so it was accepted at a time that we had high rates of inflation as the price that had to be paid for low unemployment. Then we got stagflation and suddenly economist, through regression analysis disproved the theory.

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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.

There've been so many excellent Threads here on the current U.S./world economic woes that I hadly knew where to put this.
RISK MANAGEMENT--All the financial risk management models were skewed towards imaginable, manageable scenarios, not the extremes as happened. This article shows how and why the Masters of the Universe got it so wrong, and why they'll get it wrong next time too.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magaz ... =1&sq=risk mismanagement&st=cse
FINANCIAL DEBACLE, SIMPLY EXPLAINED--Here's an Op-Ed piece by a hedge fund CEO and author,and a financial journalist. Longish piece. It lays out what went wrong, why, and what can be done to salvage. If there's a hero in all this, it's Harry Markopolos--read why.
www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opinion/04lewiseinhorn.html

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"A man accustomed to hear only the echo of his own sentiments, soon bars all the common avenues of delight, and has no part in the general gratification of mankind"--Dr. Johnson
"Amen, brother"-ED

Thanks Jazzbro for posting those two articles. VaR reminds me of Black Shoals methodlogy. It worked for awhile, but markets will always find a way to cause pain in new and unexpected ways and those masters of the universe will just keep on telling us, "It's different this time" and it is, but just not in the way they think it is.

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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.

Richard

It is flawed!!!! You did not include the CRT discount in your calculation. First the $45 rate was during construction and depending on the dates was a special discount. The price of our queen deluxe rooms after weekly discount of 25% is $51.75 per night before tax. If you were to stay one night it is $58.65. This includes breakfast for you and your guest (should she stay), laundry service, no guest fee and a VERY good staff. Had you stayed with us in september, october or during holiday season we offered daily discounts of 25% and weekly discounts of 35%. MEANING if you stayed with us a week in sept/oct the daily rate was $44.85 before taxes. I am a reasonable person and like all good business men i am willing to negotiate hotel room prices when times are slow. we have a toll free number (1-866-468-8684) and when in doubt pick up the phone and call me (or pm me) and i will see what i can do.

Regards
Matt

Matt,

I will call you as soon as I firm up my trip plans. I am working on air transportation right now. I want to fly into Panama City, take a bus to San Jose then fly out of San Jose back to florida. Once I confirm airfare I will make hotel plans.

My beef with the country of Costa Rica is that nobody wants to admit that there is a recession going on. Hotels are raising prices, but air fares are going down. According to Scott Oliver of "We love costra rica . com" prices for housing in Costa Rica are an all time bargin. You can buy a house in Costa rica for only $300,000 of $400,00.

I buy houses in florida. A house that was selling for $150,000 a year ago is now selling for $70,000. But the houses in Costa Rica are increasing?

Matt, I do not have a problem paying a fair price for a room. And, god knows, I love your hotel. I will call you soon.

You are right, prices here are still absurd. There is a giant disconnect between what sellers think things are worth and what they are likely to get. There will always be fools who overpay and buy into the 'it used to be x but now it's only .8x, so hurry and buy' rap, but the supply of fools is diminishing along with their home equity lines of credit back home. I predict the crash will lag here by a significant amount of time, maybe even years, but eventually prices will reflect what buyers will pay, not what sellers want to get.

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"The only normal people are those you don't know very well." Joe Ancis