Pops wrote:
Something for thought. What are the chances that I will die from this virus? The degree of hysteria that is depicted in the media may not be warranted. The measures that are being utilized to control this illness may be completely wrong. 6 people in Costa Rica have died that tested positive for this virus. Others may have died that were not tested but many more may have had the virus in a mild form and never met the criteria to be tested. What is known is that most who die are either older or obese. I know that I am in the high risk group. I am 70, have mild hypertension, am slightly overweight, have mild asthma. I am confident that at least 20% of the over 700 people who have tested positive here probably meet these same risk factors if not more serious. Only 3 people my age or older have died. They were in their mid to late 80s. My chances look pretty good even if I get the virus.
The information that is available about age, health demographics shows that 80% of the people who get this virus have mild symptoms that do not require medical intervention. Costa Rica is a good example of this as is the aircraft carrier that had close to 5000 on board, over 400 tested positive, 9 of the 400 were treated for symptoms and only 1 died. A study in California indicated that the virus was 50 to 80 times more prevalent in the population than testing had indicated.
What the media is not telling us is the age and health demographics of the people who are dying. If only one person under the age of 50 out of nearly 5000 people who were on the aircraft carrier died and that is assuming that most of the personnel on the ship were in reasonably good health then imposing the degree of social distancing on them that is being imposed on the general population might be considered excessive. I would definitely like to see how many of the deaths attributed to the virus in the states were among people under the age of 40 and not having pre existing health issues.
Social distancing here is only halfway being practiced and yet the cases are not expanding. I rode a bus this week where people were sitting next to each other, a half way attempt was made to space people out. There was no attempt at sanitizing and nobody except myself was wearing a mask including the driver. This in San Jose where the most cases have been recorded. If you walk down Avenida Central it is 80% normal pedestrian traffic during the day with 1 in 20 wearing a mask. Yet you cannot sit next to someone in a restaurant or walk alone on a deserted beach here.
If you were told that your chance of dying from this virus was one in 10,000 would you be so quick to give up your freedom and endure this economic hardship. If you could voluntarily expose yourself to the virus knowing that your chances of dying were one in 10,000 would you do so. I would with those odds. My odds probably are not quite this good but probably not prohibitively bad. We were not given a choice. Our freedom was taken. If I were you I would be demanding to know the truth. The media is not telling you. The politicians are not telling you. The bureaucrats are not telling you the truth of what is the real chance you will die from this virus given your life circumstance. I think we have all been had by many people with agendas that are not in our best interest. The media doesn't have to lie, nor do the politicians and bureaucrats. They can get by emphasizing things that are peripheral to the real issue. The real issue is how likely are you to die from this virus if you actually get it.
I am 69 years old...and have seen a lot of the information on deaths by age group, etc. The information is out there. The number of people who have actually had the virus is a bit of an open question...those numbers from New York and California were antibody tests that may or may not be very accurate. But no doubt there are many that have had it that are not in the official numbers. I think closer to 10 times the reported numbers...but we'll know better when the immunological tests progress and become more accurate.
All in all at my age, if I were to get the virus, I think my chances of dying are around 1 to 2%, which is less than the rates for "known cases" in my age group. I have none of those pre-existing conditions as far as I know.
So then what are the chances I will get it? Here, at the moment, very low. Everyone is still physical distancing, no one is closer than 6 or 7 feet apart when out at grocery shopping, etc. and most people are only closer to people they live with. There are exceptions with essential service workers, and with younger people who think they are not at all vulnerable. But generally compliance is good. And case numbers are low and dropping in my area. Over 80 percent of our deaths were in long term care facilities and seniors residences. And those are not completely done yet, but are currently being managed better hopefully.
I know I'm not ready to take the gamble on places where people are moving and mixing freely however. Not until case numbers are very low and certainly not if those places are open to visitors from countries with uncontrolled virus.
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
Calendar
