www.CostaRicaTicas.com

Based on a whole being 100%

They are now charging 56% more?

56% is a little more than half. Are you sure that they are now charging 106 %?

That would be an increase of 56% more than before.
Help me out.
My math might be a little fuzzy?

Maybe Amistad has become very popular. I dont forsee them doing very well with the rest of the country suffering from the weakened World Markets.

Sounds like a Del Rey chica asking for cien when the current world economy does not support it.

Supply and demand!
A lot more supply than demand in this case (Hotels) (Chicas) relative.

Economics 101
50

Bilko said it very well, “A change of expectations (pricing) takes time... it lags behind reality.” The significance of the economic difficulties has not fully hit here.

Some side notes:

From the general business sector, the Tico’s who I know in the real estate game are suffering with a capital "S". One guy has all but shut down his real estate operations and shifted emphasis back to building maintenance where he can make some money. Another guy reopened his sand and gavel quarry so he could generate income.

I receive several emails every week for sales and promotions at everything from Muñoz & Nanne to Hotel Barceló. They are advertising via email which is something I had not seen done previously. And the offers are far more reasonable than the ordinary pricing structure.

To me these are tangilble indicators that they Tico’s are beginning to understand there is a major world-wide economic problem and it is affecting or will affect them soon.

From the leisure sector, it appears chicas are feeling the pinch too. The observable volume of traffic in the HDR seems to be down a lot – both Gringo and chica. However, that may not be a lasting situation because at this time of year, business volume is very difficult to gage.

Everyone knows that during this period of the year many businesses are closed while the employees are off celebrating Christmas. Perhaps you recall reading that there were four and five hour waits at the border as Nica’s crossed north heading home to be with their families.

While in the SL the other day to watch a game, I was approached by more than one woman. At least for me, that was a new experience in the SL. Unlike the HDR where they practically attack you and keep hitting you up for drinks or a meal, the girls at the SL are far more reserved and will approach only after some flirting and eye contact sports.

One chica offered $80 for FS+; she would give me four hours of her time. That was her unsolicited offer; it was not me negotiating. There was no haggling or dickering. The señorita is very attractive with a great rack. She said that work is extremely slow and she indicated that the $80 and four hours is something that is new for her.

I think she is far more astute than the typical chica. She speaks English well and has lived in the US so she understands life outside the small cloistered world in which so many of the chicas reside. They aren’t stupid; they just have an extremely limited sphere of understanding. They are not intouch with any other reality than that which is within their immediate vision.

To repeat the wisdom from above, “A change of expectations (pricing) takes time... it lags behind reality,” Bro Bilko.

But not this chica. She doesn't lack anything. She is very chispa!

There was an interesting article in a local (to me) newspaper today. It talked about how certain "sin industries" are not being affected by the economic slum. One of these industries is, of course, the s*x trade. P4P is definately not legal here but it still goes on like in other parts of the country, so real data is hard to come by. Booze sales, Indian Casinos, etc. are legal and easy to quantify. You can read the article here:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008582098_vices02m0.html

After reading the article I think that I may have found a new signature line. To paraphrase Cheech and Chong (or whoever it was): "Po*sie will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no po*sie!"

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Women are like beers. I've never had one that I didn't like. Just some that I like more than others! --Western

50strokes, you are right my math was a little off, La Amistad only increased their rates by 53.3%. Here is the equation I used to calculate the 53%, if it is flawed please let me know. The last time I stayed at the hotel I paid $45.00 a night. The new rate for the same room is $69.00. Therefore: $69.00-45.00/$45.00=.533333333333

Target Conservative Portfolio for 2009: 50% Canned Goods / 50% Ammo.

But first a brief detour to one year ago:

I continue to stand by the (very general) ideas that I put forward as themes for 2008. I do not see our current situation as a "downturn" - I see it as a COLLAPSE. A downturn - a normal part of the business cycle - does not usually include a banking-broker/dealer-insurance-derivatives meltdown that requires trillions in support to prevent insolvency of virtually all of major financial institutions.

In the long run, we would be better off without many of those institutions. My buddies on Wall St. used to tell me that they were "creating wealth" - I would correct them and tell that they were "making money" (and participating in massive mal-investment and un-economic activity). The Baily Building and Loan Assoc. (of Bedford Falls) somehow didn't need billions in leveraged speculation, proprietary trad ing or derivative bets.

There seems to be a lot of talk in AB and elsewhere about this thing called "solutions". Solutions are not my department - predictions are. Any reasonable solution is by definition politically impossible - our political process is about putting out today's fire and leaving the water damage issue to another day.

Since our society cannot go forward carrying every currently existing debt ($50T++) - (this figure does NOT include unfunded liabilities) unwinding unwise credit expansion means insolvency or inflation. There are few true creditors in our society - being a debtor is far more universal. The Federal Government, State Governments, Wall St., Banks, homeowners, consumers, leveraged investors and many other groups would benefit (in a lesser of various evils sense) from the debt reducing power of inflation.

Inflation is on vacation at the moment - but it is the end game. Fiat money requires at least some net positive inflation and a determined Central Bank can Quant-Ease (plus Gov fiscal) some of our problems away - with many side effects to be sure - but someone has to go over the top rope - and it is going to be savers and not debtors.

At some point we will have what may be called A Recovery - but it will really turn out to be A Reflation and collapse again - just like in the late 1930s. Inflating our way out of trouble may also crash into Peak Oil - creating Check Mate and Lights Out.

Obam a recently pointed out how so many "different" economists - were in lockstep about the need for massive "stimulus" - funny how a counter-cyclical idea can seem sensible - but the same people advocate pro-cyclical "stimulus" as we chase one free-lunch after another.

My long-term view is dimmer than my short-term view -- so as we enter this New Year, let's all try and fondly recall how affluent our society once felt - as you will not see that again in your lifetime.

_________________
"Run silent, run deep"
Spunk glazed Chicas are the building blocks of the universe!

Unfortunately, Zippy.....I tend to agree with you.

I understand your reasoning regarding fiat currency but disagree slightly. I am one of those who hold fast to the rationale that the value of money does have inherent value because the value of money in todays economy is directly connected to the price people are willing to pay for oil.

The American economy and later the world economy were built upon the automobile and source to power it. Even when the U.S. had a gold standard, gold was not really what set the price of goods and services because its price (and value) was controlled. But the price of oil was not.

While I believe that gold is a wise investment one could seriously debate whether or not gold in fact has intrinsic value. That would be a somewhat esoteric debate.

The value of money pegged to the price of oil became much more evident after World War II when the U.S. and the world were no longer embroiled in the depression and subsequent war effort.

In my opinion, all of the serious economic crises we have had since WWII (that's the big one, with the good conduct medal), the supply and price of oil has been the key factor. Our economy is based not on the gold standard but the oil standard, albeit fluctuating.

For those who think that CR is unaffected by the US slump, you must be crazy!!! First, when the US economy is in the toilet, it is still much more productive and optimistic than CR. Relative to the US, the economy in CR ALWAYS SUCKS!!! The colones is always devaluating against the dollar. Their inflation is 13% on a good year. The export business is owned by four families, who are stingy old chronies that are not willing to sacrifice a nickel for the greater good. The only bright spots are offshore callcenters and some technology centers and tourism. Tourism is very large and heavily dependent on the state of the US economy. When OUR discretionary income plummets, suddenly trips to CR seem unthinkable.

Even more, the financial crisis in the US is hitting CR. Credit card rates, which are already usury, are increasing by two fold. Its impossible for locals with good credit to get loans. The Central Bank just announced that it needs to "print" more money to help banks return to liquidity in CR.

More later...

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http://TipsCostaRica.com for pratical advice on living in Costa Rica.
In order to write about life, first you must live it! - E. Hemingway.

Excellent post Chi_trekker.

There are some who believe that the change from structured devaluation of the Colon to a float against the USD, with controlling parameters, was designed so that what we call insider trading could go on unnoticed. In other words, those who have could get more by knowing when and how much the value of the Colon would rise or fall against the value of the USD. Of course that is ONLY speculation in as much as there is NO evidence of such.

And your comment, “The export business is owned by four families, who are stingy old chronies that are not willing to sacrifice a nickel for the greater good”, is so true! More competition would be great. But as you know, nearly all of the major franchise businesses like car dealerships and fast food stores, etc., are owned by only a few families.

I just dunno.....but when Gov spends more time pointing fingers & making up terms like "quantitative easy" & don't have the guts to call it what it is "PRINTING MONEY LIKE MAD" it concerns me.

At least I feel we mongers have a true idea of what makes the world go round. We tend to know how to survive in a dark Gulch in the middle of the night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc ... an-2/11017

There are some big differences between now & then if things really get bad. Back in the 1930's people were much happier with simple things like the Ticos & they could live off the land much easier as many where on farms anyway. Not so anymore as the Gov has made people VERY dependent & DEMANDING with their "Magic" wand & the "little Wizard of Oz" behind the BIG curtain. I guess everything is alright as long as their flock of sheep keeps believing.

I will continue with a collection of hard goods & precious metals over make believe paper for the time being until we see some true leadership. Gawd just look at the idiots at the helm of this ship of fools.....some look & talk like Elmer Fudd cartoon characters ???

_________________
"Run silent, run deep"
Spunk glazed Chicas are the building blocks of the universe!

I agree, I think it concerns us all -- printing money like crazy.

I think this is like the 4 time I heard of this “end of” scenario come around in the last 35 years. The first time I had some very smart and well educated in life people for friends. They sat down one day and tried to think of what they need to survive the “end” The list was very interesting, and things that top the list are not mentioned on any other “experts” Like needle and thread, flint, large cross cut saw, axe heads, files, shot guns not rifles. Any ways since then I have always had stashed some where the top of the list items, and learned to skills needed to use them. Like the song says “ I can skin a buck and run a trot line” ( gut skin a buck in 3 minutes in the dark with a 2 inch knife, 30 minutes to qt and de-bone) Got enough guns and ammo for a small war, and food walks by my house on a regular basis 3 times a day, know were to get fresh greens and fruits and how to fix any wounds, 200 yards from my house is a clean fresh well water, and I got lakes with fresh fish, within 5 minutes walk, and can walk 20 miles a day –day in and day out. But I have always wondered how people in any size of a city would live? Or the South or south west, Think about it, do you know where food or water is if nothing working and money is no good. Or how abut 110 degrees, could you make it.. 20 below zero is easy living compared to 110 above.( done both) Or got any medical problems like bad eyes ( any glasses need at all qualifies you for that) weak heart, or maybe a old foot ball injury. Better count your days. I am prepared ARE YOU???????

But what really concerns me is and I hope some here can tell me is

The ladies ASK for 100 cein now—What’s that in chickens??? I need to know how many to take with me in March. Will they then start allowing live chickens on planes, Where will keep them a SL? Will Bill open a live chicken room so we do not have to keep them in our rooms? What’s the value of turkeys compared to chickens ?( got more turkeys here then chickens ) there a lot bigger turkey get longer time with a lady ?? This is the type of info we will need when the collapse comes.

Because if it does collapse as Zippy is offering as a possible prediction the barter system will take over and the Arabs can start drinking there oil. However long before that end comes around there be a retreat back to isolationism and every county taking for themselves what they can grab. Which get us back to what Al Bundy said, “ America makes two things better them any one else 1) Kalifornia big chest blonds and 2) Nuclear Bombs”. Hint hint AND in case IRAN has not noticed, we used them already …

So wile Zippy observation are well founded the out come in my opinion based over my life span of seeing this before, there will not be a collapse . However for younger members here His thoughts are a HUGE WARNING on how to prepare yourselves and plan ahead so next time ( about 7-10 years or so) you will not get caught up with the rest of the herd and lose you butt, but since every one forget his thoughts the last 3 times , I am sure every one will forget his warning and thoughts again and again and again.

In MHO I would agree with DiegoC views on oil being more of the basis for exchange value, and will be until some how energy use can be broken away from oil. And as long as Saudis Arabia continues to hold the key to the world oil markets and they are ruled by some one who’s friendly to US and understands economics, ( that’s a lot of ANDS ) this problem the world has will turn around and start back up, Wall St will have a change of heart and start investing in Companies that make products and stop making Deals, you know deal – deals to make money ( as pointed out by Zippy in far better writing then mine).
What I will say is a sure thing is that WE, and I mean USA will come back first, and that for a few years after that we will be riding the top again well ahead of the rest, the only ones we have to worry about are the un-free counties ruled not for their citizens but for the benefit of a few, those counties that copy what we successfully did,or do but never lead ( fair trade, not free trade with them) , if we use those few years to build then we have a huge lead over the rest of the world for along time, but if we do what we did last time and party, or we will have a equal out there.

But in the mean time How many chickens should I bring for a 8 night stay??? I do have a mansion room, so do you think I get a discount from the girls for having that room??? If the chickens lay eggs when in the SL do I own them or does BILL?

Everytime valuations get beyond historical norms you always hear the Wall Street gurus telling you, "It's different this time."
I am about half way through Amity Shales' book, "The Forgotten Man" about the Great Depression and the one thing that comes through is that we can always depend on our politicians to do the same stupid things over and over again.

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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.

Many of us recall 1973 when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) which was the Arab states -only subset of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shut off the oil tap to the U.S. because the U.S. agreed to rearm and resupply Israel during the Yom Kippur War. Perhaps we don’t recall how precarious the economy was at that time.

Let’s face it, one of the more ho-hum sounding courses in university has titles such as The History of Economics in the 20th Century. But studying economic history is critical to understanding the economy today.

I am sure that Taz is learning a lot by reading Amity Shales' book, The Forgotten Man. I am encouraged to buy a copy as well. As I understand the book it is an economic history of that period.

- Does it also relate to the post Depression and post World War II periods?
- Does she spend a lot of time addressing Kaynesian economics?


As we all realize, failure to understand our past causes us to relive it; and if we don’t understand Bretton Woods and we don’t understand the actions taken by President Richard Nixon to both end Bretton Woods and begin relations with China, then we cannot come to terms with the realities of today’s economic order and the probability of what is to come.

Yes we have a problem and I believe it is unprecidented, only meaning that it is different than previous economic problems. But take a look back. My belief is the U.S. economic system was as much on the brink of collapse then (1970s) than it is today. And what we have today is in large part an outcome of the decision made back then. At its source is the control of oil. Oil, not gold, controls the value of money.

Xman00 provides highly germane points. It reminds me of a bumper sticker I saw on a pick’em-up truck in the highly agriculturalized Imperial Valley of California: “The only essential industry is food production.”

You are so right Taz, our politicians don’t learn and they keep repeating the same mistakes. I know a bunch of them. Some are world class intellectuals and at the other end of the spectrum, there are some who are so dumb you are surprised they learned how to breathe.

Certainly not the end of things by any means but it is a wakeup call that.....well we will see but when the Dems are talking about TAX cuts hum... Houston we have a problem ...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28506337

We will bounce back but it may be like a bad dream for a while. I always hope for the best but 2009 looks bad & 2010 seems even worse too me.

All I really want is to be on the right side of what happens & have fun & laughs doing it. Just hard to see old retired people getting hurt .

_________________
"Run silent, run deep"
Spunk glazed Chicas are the building blocks of the universe!